The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99%, and there are strong expectations for a rate cut in December.

● The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99%, and there is a strong expectation for a rate cut in December.
According to ChainCatcher, the CME "Fed Watch" indicates that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in October is 99%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 1%. Additionally, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 94%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 6%.
● Jack Dorsey claims that Bitcoin is a currency rather than a cryptocurrency.
According to ChainCatcher, Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey stated that Bitcoin is not a cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is currency.
● Data: On-chain contract trading volume increased by over 1000% in the past year.
According to Foresight News, Dune data shows that the on-chain contract transaction volume has increased by over 1000% in the past year.
● Analysis: Some market indicators suggest that ETH may continue its rebound momentum and reach $4,500 before the end of October.
According to a report by TechFlow, on October 19, some market indicators suggest that Ethereum may continue its rebound momentum and reach $4500 before the end of October. Currently, ETH seems to be forming a "bullish flag," a trend that typically indicates a continuation of the upward trend after a brief consolidation.
In addition, the recent price of ETH has generally remained above the "Weekly Bull Market Support Band", indicating a potential breakout of the upper channel limit, which is in the range of $4,450 to $4,500. If a breakout occurs, it may reach $5,200 in November. However, if ETH falls below the price range of $3,550, which is the "lower boundary of the bullish flag pattern", it may face further pullbacks.
● Viewpoint: The structural bull market remains intact, and there are three major favorable factors for the next round of increase.
According to ChainCatcher, Alex Thorn, the research director at Galaxy Digital, believes that the structural bull market for cryptocurrencies and the stock market remains intact. The three driving forces behind the rise are artificial intelligence capital expenditure, stablecoins, and tokenization. Thorn points out that artificial intelligence capital expenditure is led by well-funded companies and supported by U.S. policy, creating a non-speculative bubble. He believes that corporate budgets and government positions indicate that there is still a long way to go in the future.
In terms of stablecoins, improved payment channels, increased participation, and enhanced liquidity have kept tokens pegged to the US dollar in the spotlight, supporting the ecosystem. In terms of tokenization, the shift of real-world assets and traditional market infrastructure from pilot to implementation has created new demand for blockchain space and core assets. Thorn is optimistic about Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" and believes that major currencies like ETH and SOL, related to stablecoins and tokenization, will usher in favorable circumstances.
● Grayscale releases Solana research report: ecosystem annual revenue could reach 5 billion dollars
According to a report by Wu, Grayscale has released a report stating that the monthly fee revenue of the Solana ecosystem is approximately $425 million, with an annualized figure of about $5 billion, and the average transaction fee is only $0.02. There are more than 1,000 full-time developers in the ecosystem, making it the second largest after Ethereum. Grayscale pointed out that the annual supply growth rate of SOL is about 4%–4.5%, with staking annualized returns of about 7% and actual returns of about 2.5%–3%; if the network continues to grow, the price of SOL is expected to benefit in the long term.
● Crypto KOL Ansem: BTC needs to rise above $112,000
According to BlockBeats, on October 19, crypto KOL Ansem stated that from the weekly charts of XRP, SOL, and ETH, market momentum has ended, and prices are declining, with BTC prices falling below the highest point of 2024. The market lacks new narratives, and MSTR is expected to peak in November 2024, while the ETH/BTC exchange rate is rising as it does at the end of each cycle. Ansem believes that BTC needs to rise above $112,000 to change his outlook. #CryptoMarketObservation