#十月降息预测 Regarding the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut path, investors expect that the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points at the October policy meeting. This follows the central bank's first rate cut of the year last month due to weak employment data.

According to CME's "Fed Watch", as of now, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99%, and the probability of cutting by 50 basis points is 1%; the probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by the Fed in December is 94%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 6%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 100 basis points is 0.1%.
In terms of macroeconomic data, the U.S. government stated that it will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Friday, so that the Social Security Administration can complete the calculation and distribution of welfare payments in a timely manner.
The CPI report, as a closely watched inflation indicator, will be released a few days before the Fed's next interest rate meeting on October 28-29.
Market analysts point out that the current "shutdown" of the U.S. government may extend until November, by which time the three months of concentrated data may be released at the end of the year, becoming key to deciding whether to continue lowering interest rates before 2026. Historically, the government shutdowns in the 1990s and the 2010s also led the Fed to rely on informal information and adopt a cautious pace. The current situation is similar, with this meeting appearing more like maintaining the status quo rather than declaring a direction.