The current financial market is highly sensitive to policies and statements. Powell's strong dovish signals and Trump's trade remarks form a short-term hedge, ultimately presenting a pattern of "favourable information dominance and limited disturbance," revealing the short-term logic of the market for investors. Powell's speech last night released two key pieces of information: a halt in balance sheet reduction in the coming months and a possible interest rate cut at the end of the month, directly alleviating concerns about liquidity and strengthening expectations for easing. Driven by this, U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market quickly hit bottom and rebounded, performing a V-shaped reversal — the three major U.S. stock indices rose after dipping, with sectors like technology strengthening; mainstream encryption currencies surged over 5%, significantly boosting market activity, with policy signals becoming the core driving force behind the rebound.

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In the closing remarks of Powell's speech, USDC has cumulatively increased by 600 million. The increase in issuance is a signal for capital entry, accurately aligning with the favourable information window, reflecting institutions' recognition of the policy and their optimism about the rebound potential, injecting liquidity into the crypto space and consolidating the optimistic atmosphere. Trump has voiced concerns about soybean oil trade in an attempt to suppress the market, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks at the end of trading, but the actual impact is minimal: in terms of scale, U.S. imports of discarded cooking oil from China in 2024 are only 110 million USD, and the total value of genuine vegetable oil is merely several hundred million to over ten billion USD, far below the hundreds of billions in total trade between China and the U.S.; in terms of structure, China is the main export market for this category outside of the U.S., and the U.S. is not the primary source of imports from China, making the impact difficult to transmit to the macro economy.

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At the end of the month, whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and the details of tapering will be crucial. The short-term market is likely to fluctuate upwards, and investors need to distinguish between fundamentals and emotional interference, focusing on policies and core data for sound decision-making.