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#鲍威尔讲话 Attention investors, an important speech by Fed Chairman Powell will take place tonight at 00:20. This speech is highly noteworthy for global markets. Powell's remarks directly influence the expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. next year, and this policy trend has a decisive impact on the liquidity of the crypto assets market.
Why is Powell's speech crucial for the Crypto Assets market? The reason lies in the fact that policy inclination will directly affect the flow of funds. If he shows a tendency towards interest rate cuts, the US dollar may weaken, and more funds will flow into high-risk asset categories like $BTC, creating a favorable situation; on the contrary, if he insists on a high interest rate stance, tightening of liquidity will put pressure on the market. Looking back at history, during last year's Fed interest rate hikes, Bitcoin fell below $20,000, whereas when expectations of interest rate cuts formed, the price quickly rebounded to $38,000, which fully illustrates the significant impact of policy signals on the market.
In the face of potential market volatility tonight, rational investors should adopt the following strategies:
First, closely follow the key words. Pay special attention to Powell's tone and wording when he talks about "inflation" and "employment". If he emphasizes that "inflation is under control", this may suggest that interest rate cuts are approaching; if he frequently mentions "data-driven policy making", it indicates a more cautious attitude.
Secondly, maintain a reasonable position allocation. The market may experience significant fluctuations tonight, so it is recommended to keep the position under 50% to reserve enough funds for potential buying at low points or to stop loss if necessary.
Third, learn from successful cases. For example, after the Fed meeting in May this year, some investors gradually increased their holdings when $BTC fell to $67,000, and took timely profits when the price rebounded to $71,000. This non-greedy trading mentality is key to surviving in the market for the long term.
My personal analysis suggests that Powell is likely to adopt a vague stance tonight, neither clearly committing to a rate cut nor completely ruling out the possibility. It is noteworthy that the market may have already digested some negative expectations, so as long as his remarks are not overly hawkish, any pullback could present a buying opportunity.
Remember, professional investors focus on expected changes rather than blind bets. Staying calm and thinking clearly is more important than blindly following the trend when market volatility increases.