Web3 Potential in EV Stocks Amid Tax Credit Expiration

Key Points

• Tesla's valuation remains robust despite sales declines, potentially due to its Web3 and AI initiatives
• Nio's European expansion and battery-as-a-service model showcase blockchain-based innovations
• Toyota's hybrid focus and potential tokenization of vehicle services present unique Web3 opportunities

The $7,500 electric vehicle (EV) tax credit in the United States expired on October 1, 2025, prompting concerns about a potential slump in EV demand. However, certain EV manufacturers are well-positioned to thrive in this new landscape, particularly when viewed through a Web3 lens.

Tesla: Beyond EV Manufacturing

Tesla's stock continues to demonstrate resilience despite recent sales declines. In Q1 2025, the company delivered 336,681 vehicles, a 13% year-over-year decrease, followed by a 13.5% decline in Q2 with 384,122 deliveries. Notably, Cybertruck sales remain minimal at under 10,000 units per quarter.

Despite these figures, Tesla's shares have appreciated 14% year-to-date, maintaining a trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 17.4. This valuation significantly exceeds that of traditional automakers like Toyota (0.78x) and Volkswagen (0.16x), and surpasses Tesla's own five-year average of 13.4x.

Web3 Perspective: Tesla's robust valuation may be attributed to its forays into blockchain technology and decentralized systems. The company's initiatives in self-driving robotaxis and autonomous humanoid robots align closely with Web3 principles of decentralized control and machine-to-machine interactions. Furthermore, Tesla's past acceptance of Bitcoin for vehicle purchases demonstrates its openness to cryptocurrency integration, potentially paving the way for future blockchain-based payment systems and tokenized vehicle services.

Nio: Blockchain-Powered Expansion

Nio, a Chinese EV manufacturer, remains unaffected by the U.S. tax credit expiration due to its focus on Chinese and European markets. The company has established operations in Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark, with plans to enter seven additional European countries.

Nio's competitive pricing strategy is evident in its new Onvo L90 electric SUV, offered at $37,000 or $25,000 with a subscription to its battery-as-a-service (BaaS) plan. This innovative approach allows users to swap depleted battery packs for fully charged ones, eliminating charging wait times.

Web3 Perspective: Nio's BaaS model presents a prime opportunity for blockchain integration. By tokenizing battery swaps and implementing smart contracts for the service, Nio could create a more efficient, transparent, and decentralized energy exchange system. This aligns with Web3 principles of peer-to-peer transactions and could potentially evolve into a decentralized energy marketplace, where EV owners become both consumers and providers of energy services.

Toyota: Hybrid Dominance with Tokenization Potential

Toyota has maintained a strong focus on hybrid technology, with models like the Sienna minivan and Camry sedan offered exclusively as hybrids in the U.S. market. The company's late entry into the U.S. EV market with the bZ SUV in late 2022 has resulted in modest sales of about 35,000 units, including 18,570 in 2024.

Toyota's planned expansion of U.S. EV manufacturing capacity, including the production of two fully electric three-row SUVs at its Kentucky plant, may face challenges due to slumping EV sales. However, the company's diverse product lineup and 3.2% dividend yield position it as a relatively stable investment in the evolving automotive landscape.

Web3 Perspective: Toyota's extensive hybrid lineup presents unique opportunities for Web3 integration. By tokenizing vehicle maintenance services, carbon offset credits, or even fractional ownership of fleet vehicles, Toyota could create new revenue streams and enhance customer engagement. Smart contracts could automate service scheduling and payments, while blockchain-based supply chain management could improve efficiency and transparency in Toyota's vast manufacturing network.

In conclusion, while the expiration of the EV tax credit poses challenges for the U.S. electric vehicle market, companies like Tesla, Nio, and Toyota demonstrate resilience through their diverse strategies and potential for Web3 integration. As the automotive industry continues to evolve, the intersection of electric vehicles and blockchain technology may unlock new value propositions and business models, potentially reshaping the future of transportation.