📢 [October 12 Practical Strategy | Survival Guide in Turbulent Times]

🎯 Core Viewpoint

The tariff black swan has created a golden pit, and the expected interest rate cut in October supports the market. We are currently in a period of panic recovery, and the risk of a second bottom has not dissipated, but mainstream coins have entered the value range. In chaotic times, one should either stay out of the market and watch or only play the cards with the highest certainty.

📊 Market Bull-Bear Game

Policy aspect: 94.6% probability of interest rate cut in October (liquidity expectations support) Trump’s 100% tariff threat on China (effective November 1)
Capital situation: Cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin ETF exceeds $40 billion (long-term cornerstone) Ethereum ETF saw a weekly outflow of $796 million (capital hedging)
Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 20 (extreme panic may rebound). The overall leverage ratio remains high, and the liquidation risk has not been fully cleared.
Technical analysis: BTC has formed a consolidation range between 109,000 and 115,000. The 4-hour chart shows a bearish moving average arrangement, and it has not effectively stabilized above 115,000.

🔍 Key Signal Interpretation of the Market

1. Bitcoin: Consolidating in a range, waiting for direction.

· Currently, it is in a shrinking range oscillation between 109,000 and 115,000, and it needs to effectively break through 115,000 to confirm the short-term bottom.
· The 4-hour chart shows a bottom divergence in MACD, but the EMA moving averages are still in a bearish arrangement - technical repair takes time.

2. Ethereum: Weak linkage, focus on key levels

· Core volatility range 3640-3950, with 3640 as the lifeline (200-day moving average + Fibonacci retracement support).
If it can break through 3950 with increased volume, it is expected to test the 4100-4200 resistance zone.

3. Altcoins: Blood is flowing, be cautious when buying the dip.

· Major altcoins like SOL and DOGE have fallen by over 20%. A rebound in weak coins is an opportunity to reduce holdings.
· The altcoins that are truly worth investing in must meet the following criteria: expected ETFs + solid fundamentals + active community (SOL has already been approved by the Canadian ETF).

💼 Practical Strategy: Contract + Spot Combination Punch

BTC Long: Test position 109000-110000, stop loss 108000, target 113000-115000 Short: Test position 115000-116000, stop loss 117000, target 111000-112000
Batch orders: 105000-107000 (first shot) 98000-100000 (heavy position zone)
ETH Long: 3640-3700 trial position, stop loss 3580, target 3850-3950 Short: 3950-4000 trial position, stop loss 4050, target 3750-3800
Batch orders: 3500-3600 (building position) 3200-3300 (additional position)
SOL is for short-term only: buy low at 215-220, stop loss at 208, target 235-240. Mainly observe, consider chasing the trend after breaking 250.

🛡️ Rules for Survival in Chaotic Times

1. Position management is the key.

· Total position ≤ 50%, single cryptocurrency ≤ 10% (Surviving under a black swan is more important than how much you earn)
· Contract leverage ≤ 3 times, no all-in betting (data shows that high leverage is the main cause of liquidation)

2. Scam Prevention Guide

· Beware of "copy trading teachers": those who promise capital protection and guaranteed profits are 100% scammers.
· Verify the official website: Shady exchanges may imitate domain names to steal assets.
· Block immediately if customer service requests a verification code: A legitimate platform will never actively ask for your password.

3. Emotional Value Replenishment

Historical data tells you: every black swan is an opportunity for wealth redistribution -

· After the crash on March 12, 2020, BTC increased fivefold in six months.
· After the LUNA crash in 2022, mainstream coins reached new highs the following year.
The most important thing right now is: protect the principal, maintain patience, and wait for certainty signals.

💎 Summary

The current market is in a fierce tug-of-war between "policy bearish vs liquidity bullish."
On operation:
· Short-term: Swing trading at key support/resistance levels, quick in and out.
· Medium to long-term: Use panic to gradually accumulate BTC/ETH spot.
· Risk Control: Better to miss than to make a mistake

What percentage of your position do you have now? Did you buy the dip or are you still waiting?

Data source: CoinGlass public organization, opinions do not constitute investment advice. #美联储降息预期升温 #十月加密市场预测