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The current market trend at 13:45 is still looking good, consistent with yesterday's judgment. ETH is under strong pressure in the 4740-70 range, and has not formed a 4-hour head and shoulders structure. After that, it started to decline and indeed reached the strong support at 4440, but it has now broken below. Moving forward, the approach is quite simple: I will continue with the short position strategy. However, currently, the 15-minute and 1-hour charts will see a rebound phase. It is in the rebound stage, and the initial resistance is at 4480-4520; the rebound might not be strong, as it is against the trend. As shown in the chart, the strong resistance is in the 4550-60 range, which is a significant pressure zone. If it does not break through and stabilize, a V-shaped reversal will not happen. Additionally, the 4-hour chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily line, so the outlook remains bearish. The support below is around 4290-4130, which provides at least 200 points of profit space. Note that these are approximate locations, not specific points. This market analysis leads to a straightforward operational thought, right? Short positions, target areas are set, and the defense zone is above 4560 (which is also the 38.2% retracement level of this decline). This is a reasonable stop-loss level for short positions. If one wants to take a rebound position, the stop-loss level for long positions is the current low at 4410, but it will also face the issue of ineffective stop-loss. Personally, I will observe first and see if there is an opportunity to short in the 4520-40 range, controlling the position size to minimize the stop-loss. The risk-reward ratio is quite favorable, this is a rough judgment and direction. Patience is key; ultra-short and frequent trades are not in my consideration and analysis scope. The take-profit levels for short positions are at 4370-4290, and below that, we can only see how it unfolds step by step.
The main resistance for Bitcoin is at 12W2600-2800, with a significant support range below around 11W7800, which also has a profit margin of 3000 points. The same rebound short strategy applies; whether it's for Ethereum or Bitcoin, my personal strategy is that missing out on a long or short position is acceptable, but if there is no clear signal to go long, I don't want to rely purely on gambling, guessing, or market feel anymore, as the win rate is too low.