💎 Wind God Chat Trading— #XAU#  2025.09.18

Daily Analysis
1️⃣ Structural Interpretation
Gold performed in the early morning as "first surging high and then being pressured back by the stabilization of the US dollar/US Treasury yields": short support is at 3644-3635, resistance at 3691-3695. Secondly, 3700-3710. If the price holds at the support level and volume increases again, there is still a chance for a second surge; conversely, if the dollar continues to strengthen, the risk of a pullback is significant.

2️⃣ Fund Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics
Macroeconomic Drivers: Following the 25bp rate cut by the US, the Federal Reserve's statement leaned towards "data dependency/caution," leading to a stabilization and rise in short-term dollar and long-term Treasury yields, thereby exerting pressure on gold (news and market interpretation). However, medium- to long-term rate cut expectations and central bank physical demand continue to support gold prices at high levels.

ETF/Positions: Large gold ETFs such as SPDR show slight adjustments in holdings (with minor outflows on certain days), but overall demand remains high.

3️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy
Bullish outlook: If the price dips to around 3644-3635 and shows signs of a bottom, a long position can be entered, with a stop loss set at a break below the 3635 level, targeting 3691–3695. If the resistance zone is broken, look to the previous high.
Short selling strategy: If the price rises near 3691–3695 and shows short-term top signals, you can enter a short position. Set the stop-loss at 3695 if the price breaks the entity, with a target around 3640.

4️⃣ Risk Warning
The Fed's next statement, the dollar's movements, and the bond market's reactions remain key to determining the short-term direction of gold prices; trading at high levels requires caution,
Pay attention to the news release window.

[For reference only, not as investment advice]