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The Fed is about to announce the latest monetary policy decision, which has drawn significant attention regarding its impact on the Crypto Assets market. Analysts believe that the market's interpretation of the Fed's policy may be more important than the actual interest rate cut measures.
Currently, the market expectations consist of three main scenarios:
The first option is a moderate rate cut of 25 basis points while sending optimistic signals. In this case, traditional financial assets may benefit preferentially, while Crypto Assets, as high-risk assets, may face short-term adjustments. Bitcoin's price may retreat after reaching around $120,000, and other crypto assets may decline due to liquidity contraction.
The second option is to cut interest rates by 25 basis points while simultaneously sending a strong signal. This "hawkish rate cut" could have a double impact on the crypto market. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may rise, weakening the appeal of Crypto Assets. Bitcoin may fall below the $110,000 support level, triggering a broader sell-off.
The third option is a significant rate cut of 50 basis points, which could lead to severe fluctuations in the crypto market. Initially, it may rise due to expectations of easing, but then it could sharply fall due to concerns about economic recession. Historically, the significant fluctuations that Bitcoin experienced after the Fed's emergency rate cut in March 2020 are a typical example.
Regardless of the final outcome, investors should remain vigilant, closely follow market trends, and manage risks effectively. In a highly uncertain market environment, it is especially important to maintain rationality and patience.