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#BTC#
1. Progress on the US Bill for Bitcoin Reserve (
Bullish Effect )
Overview:
A bipartisan bill from September 9 mandates the US Treasury to submit a report on the feasibility of a Bitcoin reserve funded by seized digital assets within 90 days (MEXC News ). This follows a similar initiative by President Trump from March.
Significance:
This step shows a growing institutional recognition of Bitcoin as a state asset, similar to what is already being pursued in Kazakhstan and the Philippines. Although the implementation is still unclear, the political dynamics reinforce the notion of Bitcoin's scarcity (only 2.46% of the BTC supply is owned by the state ).
What to watch for:
Debates in the Senate on the bill and the "budget-neutral" funding strategies of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for the reserve.
2. Technical Dynamics (
Bullish Effect )
Overview:
Bitcoin is currently trading at 114,069 USD, above its 7-day average (111,475 USD) and 30-day average (113,312 USD). The MACD histogram (+466) confirms a bullish divergence, while the RSI-14 value (54.32) shows no overbought situation.
Significance:
The price is above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (115,864 USD), with the next resistance at 61.8% (113,836 USD). A stable price above 113,000 USD could pave the way to the 127.2% extension level at 129,131 USD.
3. Custody and ETF Trends (
Mixed Impact )
Overview:
Institutional custody models (Coinbase, Anchorage Digital, Galaxy) now control about 80% of BTC ETF holdings. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw daily inflows of 1.2 billion USD during the July rally (Gate.com ).
Significance:
The concentration among custodians reduces the available liquid supply but simultaneously increases the risk through centralization. Demand for ETFs remains a key price driver, although the assets under management (AUM) of the ETFs decreased slightly by 5.6% to 145 billion USD over the last 30 days, indicating profit-taking.
Conclusion
The 24-hour increase in Bitcoin reflects optimism regarding US policy and technical developments, while ETF inflows send mixed signals. Important to watch: Can Bitcoin hold gains above 115,000 USD if the Treasury report is delayed? Additionally, the altcoin season index (67 → +131% monthly) should be monitored, as capital rotation could challenge Bitcoin's dominance.
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