#SOL价格预测# #Gate广场创作点亮中秋#

Is SOL迎来历史性机遇? The approval of the spot ETF is imminent, and now is the right time to position yourself!

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently made a bold prediction that SOL will experience an "epic rise" by the end of the year, attracting widespread attention from the market. The core driving force behind this round of market activity comes from the significant entry of institutions—top institutions like Grayscale, VanEck, and Fidelity have collectively submitted applications for a Solana spot ETF, with the SEC's final decision expected to be announced by October 10. If approved, even a small influx of capital would be enough to significantly boost the price of SOL (referring to historical data where BTC's market value increased by about 25% after the approval of the Bitcoin ETF). At this critical juncture, we believe that SOL may exhibit the following trends:

1. Short-term price impact: Emotion-driven > Actual capital flow
If the ETF passes smoothly, the market's optimistic sentiment will trigger buying, and SOL is likely to replicate the over 20% surge in a week that Ethereum experienced after its ETF approval in May, potentially hitting the key resistance level of $200 in the short term. However, caution is warranted regarding the risk of "buying the rumor, selling the news": if the application is unexpectedly rejected, the price may quickly retreat to the support range of $120-$140. Nevertheless, considering Solana's ecological advantages in payment, DePIN, MEME, and other sectors, its long-term value support remains solid.

2. Year-end price range forecast: Bullish sentiment dominates

· Optimistic scenario (ETF approval + bull market environment): Institutional funds continue to flow in, and the market cap of SOL is expected to hit 150 billion USD (currently about 70 billion), corresponding to a price range of 300-400 USD.
· Benchmark Scenario (ETF approved but macro pressure): Price may fluctuate within the range of 200-250 USD.
· Conservative scenario (ETF postponed to next year): Ecological development will still drive SOL to slowly rise, target range $160-200.

3. Trading Strategies

1. Event-driven layout: Build positions in batches before the October ETF decision (for example, add to positions every time there is a 10% drop) to avoid chasing highs all at once.
2. Volatility hedging: simultaneously buying put options to guard against black swan risks, with a cost of about 3%-5% of the position value.
3. Ecological linkage operation: Focus on the leading projects in the Solana ecosystem, as ETFs often lead to a "main chain rise → ecological follow-up" rotation market.
4. Take Profit Techniques: Use a tiered take profit strategy to capture trend gains while avoiding pullback risks.

Conclusion: Solana is at an institutional turning point; ETFs are not only price catalysts but also key to the entire ecosystem gaining recognition from traditional capital. It is recommended that investors actively participate in this historic market trend while controlling their positions and closely monitor macro variables such as the SEC decision in October and the U.S. CPI data in September.