According to the latest market analysis, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the September Fed monetary policy meeting has reached 89.4%, based on data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool. Such a high expectation for a rate cut reflects a significant shift in traders' assessment of the economic situation.

The formation of this expectation is mainly influenced by the recent weak economic data from the United States. The inflation rate is gradually approaching the Fed's target of 2%, the unemployment rate has slightly risen to 4.1%, and coupled with lackluster consumer spending and manufacturing performance, the market generally believes that the Fed may need to cut interest rates to boost the economy and guard against potential recession risks.

It is noteworthy that multiple central banks around the world have begun to cut interest rates, which provides some room for policy adjustments by the Fed. However, the decision to lower interest rates still requires weighing multiple factors, including inflation trends, employment market conditions, and overall economic growth prospects.

The market's expectations for a shift in Fed policy are so strong that they reflect growing investor concerns about the economic outlook. However, the Fed's actual decisions need to take into account more economic indicators and long-term impacts. Regardless of the final outcome, this change in expectations has already shown that market sentiment is undergoing an important turning point, which is worth closely monitoring for future developments.