#九月份加密市场能否突破# September Bitcoin: Can it break the "September Curse" and reach a new high?

In the world of cryptocurrency, the trend of Bitcoin has always been the focus of investors. As September has arrived, will Bitcoin continue its historically weak trend, or can it rebound against the trend and reach new highs?

1 September Effect: Bitcoin's "Black Month"?
Historically, September is known as a "bad month" for Bitcoin. Since 2013, in the past twelve Septembers, Bitcoin has experienced losses in eight of them, with an average return rate dropping by about -3.80%. Market veterans refer to this phenomenon as the "September Effect", and Bitcoin often trades in sync with broader risk assets. The average return rate for the S&P 500 in September since 1928 is about -1.20%, which may also impact Bitcoin seasonally. However, since 2013, every September that Bitcoin has risen followed a dismal August, suggesting that sellers are trading ahead. Analysts state that based on Bitcoin's performance in 2017, there "won't be a September crash" this year. In 2017, after a significant drop at the end of August, Bitcoin stabilized at key support levels and then reversed to soar to $20,000. Now, Bitcoin is once again hovering around the months-long base of $105,000 to $110,000, which could serve as a launching pad for another parabolic rise.
2 Technical Signal: Historical highs may be retested within 4 - 6 weeks.
From a technical analysis perspective, the $105,000 to $110,000 area was a resistance level earlier this year, and has now turned into a support level, which is a typical bullish structure. At the same time, there is an important upward signal of "hidden bullish divergence," where the Bitcoin price is declining, but the relative strength index has not significantly dropped, indicating that the market may not be as weak as the price chart suggests, and buyers may be quietly returning.
3 Weakening dollar: A boost for Bitcoin's rise?
Currently, currency traders are bearish on the dollar due to the slowing US economy and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, predicting that the dollar will decline another 8% this year. As of Sunday, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar index has dropped to -0.25, the lowest level in two years. If the dollar continues to fall, the likelihood of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market rising in September will increase.

The trend of Bitcoin in September is full of suspense. Will it continue the "September Curse," or will it break the norm and reach new highs? Let's wait and see.