Bitcoin bull run "life and death game": Cathie Wood speaks out and US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) battle the market

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood firmly stated: "We are still in a Bitcoin bull run." This optimistic sentiment quickly sparked market discussions, especially against the backdrop of Bitcoin (BTC) breaking through $109,000 and entering a high-level consolidation, as well as the better-than-expected non-farm employment data released in June, leading to increased divergence among investors regarding the sustainability of the bull run.

1. Non-farm data exceeds expectations: interest rate cut expectations cool down, market sentiment shifts.

On July 3 at 20:30 (UTC+8), the U.S. Department of Labor released the non-farm payroll data for June, showing an increase of 147,000 jobs, which is higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 139,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%, reaching a three-month low. Strong data diminished the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, putting pressure on BTC prices to adjust. Technical indicators show a short-term bearish dominance, but the long-term trend remains intact. The strong performance of the job market alleviated concerns about the economic impact of Trump's tariff policies but also raised inflation expectations.

2. Cathie Wood's bull run logic

Cathie Wood's bull run prediction is based on the scarcity of BTC and the acceleration of institutional adoption. ARK Invest's "Big Ideas 2025" report predicts that BTC could reach $1.5 million by 2030 (base case $710,000, bear case $300,000). Wood reiterated in a video on July 4th that BTC is in the early stages of "institutional beachhead," and the supply-demand imbalance will drive prices to "dramatic adjustments." She cited data: the total supply of BTC is 21 million, with 19.8 million mined, ETFs holding over 1.2 million (accounting for 5.7% of total supply), and only 1 million new coins will be gradually released over the next 115 years. Wood emphasized that BTC, as "digital gold," is attracting safe-haven demand from emerging markets, central bank reserves, and corporate balance sheet allocations.

3. BTC Price Analysis: Short-term pressure, long-term trend unbroken

K-line pattern:

The daily level shows that the recent price is oscillating at a high level, with a long upper shadow formed on July 3, indicating strong selling pressure above.

The hourly chart shows a continuous pullback trend, and the current price is near the previous lows, which provides some support.

Technical Indicators:

In the MACD hourly chart, both DIF and DEA are running downwards, the MACD histogram is negative, indicating a short-term bearish dominance, but the volume is gradually decreasing, which may signal a rebound.

The RSI hourly line value is 44.90, which has not entered the oversold zone but is close to below 50, indicating a weak market.

In the EMA hourly chart, the price has dropped below EMA7 (108966.40) and is approaching EMA30 (109133.50), while EMA120 is far from the current price, indicating that the trend remains bearish.

Trading Volume:

The daily trading volume has significantly shrunk, dropping from 13,047 on July 3 to 3,102 on July 4, indicating a weakening willingness to trade between the bulls and bears.

The hourly trading volume fluctuates significantly, with a trading volume of only 93 at 17:00, which is a notable decrease compared to the previous few hours, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

IV. Conclusion: The Clash Between Bull Market Belief and Market Reality

Cathie Wood's declaration of a "Bitcoin bull run" has injected confidence into the market, but the stronger-than-expected non-farm data for June and the short-term pullback of BTC remind investors that the bull run is not a smooth path. Strong employment data has weakened the expectations for a rate cut in July, and the strengthening dollar puts pressure on BTC, with technical indicators showing a short-term bearish dominance. In the complex environment of tariff shadows and the game of rate cuts, investors need to balance short-term volatility with long-term trends and make rational layouts. As Wood said, "The scarcity of BTC will drive price adjustments." The magnitude and timing of this adjustment will gradually be revealed in the data and policies over the coming months.

This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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