The Bitcoin market cycle is changing: Opportunity or risk?

Demand from institutions for Bitcoin continues to rise to the sky, however, on-chain activity remains at a significantly low level, creating a clear divergence between price action and network signals.

As of the time of writing, BTC is trading at $109,457, after rising 0.5% in the past 24 hours. However, according to data from CryptoQuant, the number of active addresses remains around 850,000 — a figure that was recorded when the price of BTC fluctuated just near $16,000 in 2022.

This discrepancy reflects the increasing influence of ETF funds and corporate treasuries, where large cash flows occur off-chain, making it difficult for traditional indicators to accurately reflect actual demand.

Therefore, the current price surge of Bitcoin may be occurring within a new market structure — quieter and less boisterous than before.

Do businesses accepting Bitcoin reshape the market cycle?

The wave of companies adding Bitcoin to their treasury shows increasing confidence from institutional investors. As of 2025, there are 51 companies that have integrated BTC into their balance sheets — nearly double compared to two years ago.

The data shows a steady increase year by year, as illustrated in the chart from CryptoQuant, indicating a clear long-term positioning strategy from the businesses.

While retail traders still rely on price fluctuations, institutions seem to be accumulating for long-term hold. Therefore, Bitcoin is gradually transforming from a speculative asset into a macro risk hedging tool, reshaping market dynamics and reinforcing its role as a store of value.

Bitcoin treasury companies | Source: CryptoQuant## Miners signal positively as selling pressure decreases?

Although the Miner Position Index (MPI) rose to the sky by 68.51% in a day, at the time of writing, this index is still in the negative, indicating that the amount of Bitcoin sold by miners is lower than the annual average.

Historically, the MPI negative reflects miners' confidence in the ability to rise in price in the future. If they predict the market will adjust, the number of coins sent to exchanges increases significantly.

However, the selling volume has decreased even as mining activity has increased, indicating that miners are determined to hold. This stance creates a quietly but importantly supportive force for the current price surge, reducing the selling supply in the short term.

Mining Position Index | Source: CryptoQuant## Are Bitcoin investors taking profits or simply rotating positions?

The Net Realized Profit/Loss Index (NRPL) has risen by 7.43%, indicating a moderate level of profit-taking.

However, this activity seems to be carried out cautiously rather than in a panic. Instead of a full sell-off, holders appear to be just locking in some profits as Bitcoin approaches important psychological levels.

Such behavior reflects the discipline of the market, which means that participants continue to hold exposure to the assets while preserving profits.

This also shows that the ecosystem is gradually maturing, as taking profits no longer equates to a negative signal. Therefore, the recent sell-offs seem to be more strategic rather than driven by worry or panic.

Net Realized Profit/Loss Index | Source: CryptoQuant## Are long-term holders losing faith or just restructuring their portfolios?

The daily index of destroyed coins (CDD) has risen by 3.04%, implying a slight increase in activity from coins that have been held for a long time.

However, this increase is still moderate and does not reflect panic. Perhaps long-term holders are reallocating assets or selectively taking profits without completely withdrawing from the market. Therefore, the sentiment from the group of long-term investors is generally still positive.

As long as the CDD remains at a moderate level, the confidence of veteran investors will continue to bolster the upward trend. This calm behavior supports the view that the market is developing sustainably in the long term.

Number of days coin has been destroyed | Source: CryptoQuant## Is the Bitcoin derivatives market signaling the next wave?

At the time of writing, the derivatives activity of BTC is rising to the sky, with the trading volume increasing by 22.34% to 94.2 billion dollars and the open contracts (OI) rising by 6.71%, reaching 76.76 billion dollars.

Notably, the trading volume of options surged by 58.01%, indicating that speculative momentum is increasing.

Strong leverage can amplify both price volatility and the price discovery process. However, this level of excitement also reflects a greater confidence from market participants.

Therefore, the data from the derivatives market shows that traders are betting on the possibility of a rise to the sky, rather than preparing for a reversal — further adding momentum to the current trend of BTC.

OI Bitcoin futures contract | Source: CoinGlassIn summary, the rise of BTC to nearly the $110,000 mark occurred against a backdrop of rather lackluster on-chain signals, but there was a noticeable increase in institutional acceptance, controlled selling pressure from miners, and strong momentum from the derivatives market.

This changing market structure indicates that the price of BTC may now react more to off-chain capital flows rather than traditional network indicators — ushering in a new era of quiet yet powerful price rises.

Đình Đình