March 2025 Crypto Market Review and Outlook

Key Points

• In March, the U.S. macroeconomy exhibited characteristics of a marginal decline in inflation, persistent employment resilience, but an exacerbation of policy disagreements. Core inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, the labor market has cooled moderately, and the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance. In terms of the policy and market game, the Federal Reserve emphasizes a "data-driven" path to balance inflation stickiness with interest rate cut expectations, leading to increased volatility in capital markets.

• The overall trading volume of the crypto market continues to decline, with an average daily trading volume dropping by 12%, indicating weakened market activity. The popular tokens launched in March are mainly concentrated in ecological projects and BSC meme tokens, among which Mubarak surged due to related mentions, driving the sustained popularity of BSC memes.

• In March, BTC and ETH saw outflows in their ETF funds, with BTC ETF outflow amounting to $692 million and ETH ETF outflow reaching $410 million. At the same time, the stablecoin market continued to grow, with total inflows of approximately $2.67 billion in March, mainly driven by strong growth in USDC.

• BTC rose 4.25% last week, welcoming a net inflow of $744.4 million for the US spot BTC ETF, indicating a recovery in bullish sentiment, but facing strong resistance at the 50-day moving average. Crypto assets like ETH and Solana are also showing signs of rebound, and if they break through key resistance levels, further increases are expected.

• The United States announced the inclusion of Bitcoin into its national strategic reserves, marking a historic turning point in the regulation of encryption and potentially triggering global adjustments in crypto policy. A certain trading platform has driven the continuous growth of related ecosystems and MEME projects through strong marketing campaigns and innovative features, attracting significant attention from users and investors.

Macroeconomic Overview

In March 2025, the macroeconomic situation in the United States presented a complex pattern of "easing inflation, resilient employment, and expanded policy divergence." Although there are signs of cooling in core inflation, the overall price level remains high. The labor market remains robust, with employment growth slightly slowing but not showing signs of fatigue. The Federal Reserve faces a more complex policy choice—while it needs to pay attention to the easing of financial conditions, it must also guard against the risk of inflation rising again. Against this backdrop, the capital market has experienced emotional fluctuations, and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remains high.

In February, the CPI fell year-on-year to 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly three months. The core CPI also slightly decreased to 3.1%, indicating that the pressure on service prices has eased. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious tone, emphasizing that "no action should be taken prematurely until there is clearer evidence that inflation will return to the 2% target."

The labor market continues to show resilience. In February, 151,000 new jobs were added, which is slightly below market expectations but higher than the adjusted 125,000 in January, indicating that the overall employment situation remains robust.

Overall, the inflation data is weaker than expected, providing some breathing room for the market and the Federal Reserve. Although the downward trend is clear, inflation remains "sticky," and the path to interest rate cuts should not be taken lightly.

Since March, the sentiment in the US stock market has been volatile. As of March 28, the S&P 500 has fallen by 4.4% this month, and the Nasdaq has decreased by 5.5%. There has been a noticeable pullback in large tech stocks.

Crypto Market Overview

As of March 27, the daily trading volume of the crypto market is overall on a downward trend, with market activity continuing to weaken. The current average daily trading volume is $124.5 billion, a decrease of 12% compared to the previous period. On March 20, there was a brief influx of funds that pushed trading volume to rebound, but it failed to create sustained growth momentum.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.94 trillion, down 4.85% from last month. Among them, BTC's market share is 60.8%, ETH's market share is 8.5%, and ETH's market share continues to decline. Overall, the market capitalization fluctuates between $2.7 trillion and $3.2 trillion, without a clear breakthrough direction.

In the popular tokens launched in March, the market's focus is on ecological projects and BSC memes. Mubarak surged after multiple mentions, reigniting the heat of BSC memes. Subsequently, BSC memes continue to revolve around related concepts or rely on relevant interactions to gain market attention.

On-chain Data Analysis

In March, BTC ETF saw an outflow of $692 million. The price of BTC increased from $84,373 at the beginning of the month to $87,460, reflecting a growth of about 3.6%.

In March, ETH ETFs saw an outflow of $410 million. The price of ETH dropped from $2,237 at the beginning of the month to $2,067, a decline of as much as 7.5%.

In March, stablecoin inflows were approximately $2.67 billion, primarily coming from USDC. The circulating supply of USDC increased by about $3.41 billion, capturing a significant share of the expansion in the stablecoin market. In contrast, the circulating supply of USDT decreased, with a reduction of $597 million.

Mainstream encryption asset price analysis

BTC rose 4.25% last week, closing above $86,000. The 20-day moving average is flattening, and the RSI has risen to the positive territory, indicating that the bulls currently have the upper hand. This round of rebound is expected to encounter strong resistance at the 50-day moving average ($90,290).

ETH bulls are once again trying to push the price above the 20-day moving average ($2,057) and the key breakout point of $2,111. If successful, the ETH/USDT trading pair may target the 50-day moving average ($2,356) and further challenge $2,550.

SOL broke through the 20-day moving average (135 USD), indicating that the bulls are attempting to counterattack. If the price can maintain above the 20-day moving average, the SOL/USDT trading pair may rise to the 50-day moving average (158 USD). The bears will strive to obstruct the rebound at the 50-day moving average, but if the bulls break through this resistance level, it could further surge to 180 USD.

Hot Events of This Month

The United States has announced the inclusion of Bitcoin in its national strategic reserves and signed relevant executive orders to establish a digital asset task force, aiming to make the U.S. the "global cryptocurrency capital." This plan has sparked a strong market reaction, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $95,000. Although the U.S. has not directly purchased Bitcoin in the short term, this policy marks a historic turning point in U.S. crypto regulation, promoting the legitimacy of crypto assets as financial instruments and prompting other countries around the world to reassess their cryptocurrency reserve strategies.

A certain trading platform drives rapid growth in the relevant ecosystem through high-traffic and strong narrative marketing activities. The social media interactions of the platform's founder have fueled multiple on-chain MEME projects. The platform also launches new features and activities to maintain market heat, such as zero-fee trading and exclusive IEO events, attracting users to deposit funds into the platform wallet, thereby achieving on-chain asset inflow.

Outlook for Next Month

States in the United States have made significant progress in promoting Bitcoin-related legislation. As of March, more than 20 states have proposed or are reviewing Bitcoin reserve bills, involving aspects such as public fund allocation, tax incentives, and regulatory frameworks. The passage of these bills will enable states to invest a portion of public funds in digital assets like Bitcoin, with total investment expected to exceed $23 billion.

Certain encryption assets could become the focal point of market attention, potentially attracting interest through continuous hype and event-driven activities, especially at critical junctures related to ETF approvals. Assets associated with certain projects, such as TRX, ONDO, MOVE, ENA, LINK, and AAVE, have smaller market capitalizations and exhibit high volatility, showing a high degree of speculation. The holding dynamics of related projects often trigger sharp fluctuations in the prices of these tokens, hence the further development of such assets may become the focus of the future market.