Crypto Market Weekly Overview

Analysis of BTC and ETH Trends

This week, the overall trend of the crypto market is downward. Bitcoin has been significantly affected by the Mt.Gox compensation distribution event, leading to a large decline. The volatility of Ethereum has diminished, indicating that the negative impact of the spot ETF is gradually fading, which is beneficial for future price trends.

Important Event Review

1. The Mt.Gox compensation continues, with BTC being transferred from the address to the exchange again this week for compensation, with 32,899 coins remaining to be distributed. Although there was no significant fluctuation in BTC prices during the initial phase of the compensation plan, as other uncertainties increased and market purchasing power declined, this event began to impact prices.

2. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, suggesting a possible rate cut in September. This aligns with market expectations, resulting in a rise in US stocks and a decline in bond yields. However, it also led to a withdrawal of liquidity from the crypto market, causing the phenomenon of rising US stocks while the cryptocurrency market fell.

3. The situation in the Middle East has become tense again. This sudden event has raised concerns in the market that the United States may get involved in the conflict, leading to a brief decline in U.S. stocks and an increase in the prices of crude oil and gold.

Altcoin Market Performance

The market sentiment index has dropped significantly to 12%, indicating a state of extreme fear. This is mainly influenced by uncertainties in macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and the Mt.Gox compensation issues. Especially after the Federal Reserve hinted at interest rate cuts, liquidity has shifted towards the stock and bond markets, exacerbating the lack of purchasing power in the crypto market.

The gainers list does not show obvious characteristics of sector concentration, with rising tokens scattered across various fields, and the increase is generally lower than last week, reflecting an overall correction in Altcoins. Meme coins performed poorly, with most in a downward trend.

Hot Track Analysis

The SocialFi sector performed the best, mainly thanks to the strong performance of TON. TON increased by 2.41% this week, with an annual return rate of up to 458.84%, dominating the sector absolutely. However, most other SocialFi projects are in a downward trend.

The overall performance of the Meme sector is poor, with only 3 Meme projects among the top 500 by market capitalization showing an increase. This is mainly due to the decline of the market, the rise in risk-averse sentiment, and the fact that Meme coins typically experience larger drops during market downturns.

Future Outlook

1. Bitcoin: The compensation from Mt.Gox is ongoing, coupled with increased macro uncertainty and insufficient market liquidity, it is expected to maintain a wide-ranging fluctuation trend next week.

2. Ethereum: After the approval of the spot ETF, the market continues to "sell on good news." Coupled with the continuous large-scale selling by Grayscale's ETHE, it faces significant pressure in the short term. Insufficient market liquidity and low sentiment may lead to further corrections.

3. Altcoin: Affected by multiple uncertain factors, investor sentiment is cautious. In the absence of new hotspots, it is expected to follow the overall market trend next week, making it difficult to see an independent market.