Over the past three years, Bitcoin has consistently demonstrated a recurring pattern in response to geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks: a three-stage logic of “panic selling forced liquidations risk aversion rebound.” This sequence played out during major events such as the 2023 Israel-Palestine conflict, when Bitcoin briefly plunged to $27,000 before rebounding on safe-haven demand, particularly from Middle Eastern capital seeking alternative stores of value. Similarly, in 2024, former President Trump’s tariff policies triggered a sudden crash in Bitcoin’s price. However, institutions stepped in to buy at the $95,000 level a key technical and psychological support leading to a recovery back to the $100,000 range.

In the short term, market focus has centered on defending the $96,000–$100,000 support zone. A clean break below this level could activate widespread risk controls, particularly among leveraged traders and algorithmic strategies, potentially triggering a cascading liquidation event. However, if prices revisit the $95,000 level largely considered the cost basis for short-term institutional holders it may present a strong opportunity to build positions in tranches. From a macro hedging perspective, attention is now shifting to broader indicators such as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Federal Reserve policy. A DXY decline below 90, in particular, could act as a strong signal for a renewed Bitcoin bull market, as it would likely reflect a return to risk-on sentiment and looser financial conditions.
Despite recent turbulence, the long-term narrative surrounding Bitcoin remains intact. While the recent plunge has challenged the belief in Bitcoin as a digital safe-haven, exposing its high volatility and correlation with broader risk assets, it has not invalidated its role as a long-term hedge against fiat devaluation and capital restrictions. Rather than behaving like digital gold in moments of crisis, Bitcoin has evolved into a barometer for global risk sentiment. Nonetheless, its borderless, permissionless nature makes it uniquely suited for use in regions with capital controls such as Iran, Turkey, and other inflation-prone economies where it continues to serve as a vehicle for capital preservation and cross-border transactions.
Institutional adoption continues to deepen, halving cycles remain relevant, and the overarching trend of fiat debasement all provide structural support for the long-term thesis. A $200,000 price target may still be realistic within the current cycle, especially if global liquidity conditions ease and geopolitical uncertainty persists. Ultimately, while war and macro shocks may disrupt short-term price stability, they often serve to accelerate the market’s maturation and differentiation. The true winners are not those who panic, but those who stay disciplined and accumulate strategically those with the calm minds who "pick up chips in the midst of gunfire.