Is the black swan still something that can be foreseen? What has happened? We live in a fascinating era.

At the same time, targets in Tehran, Isfahan, and Natanz were attacked; 2-3 generals of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were eliminated.
Over 100 drones launched into southern Israel; most were intercepted.
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market capitalization was $230 billion; over $1.2 billion in forced liquidations of ( altcoins were more affected than BTC ).
Dropped to $103 k (-8 %) and quickly rebounded to 105-106 k; volatility and options skew sharply increased.
Why do cryptocurrencies react more strongly to the stock market?
High leverage: The futures market quickly "liquidates" excessive borrowing alternative bulls.
Limited liquidity on weekends/nights: large orders are more likely to "break the spread."
Positioning: Before the shock, risk appetite dominated ( investments in AI and the meme sector ), thus panic liquidations exacerbated the decline.
Nervous breakdowns happen because there are many tightly leveraged altcoins in cryptocurrency.
The trajectory of the future mainly depends on the headlines from Tehran and Jerusalem.
The current basic scenario is a "burning" conflict and a turbulent sideways market, but the market is still a barrel of gunpowder: keep risks under control.