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The US CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be released in May 2025.
1. CPI year-on-year growth +3.3% (compared to May 2024), slightly lower than the market expectation of +3.4% (previous value: April 2025 was +3.4%)
2. CPI Month-on-Month Change: +0.0% (compared to April 2025), lower than the expected +0.1%. (Previous value: April Month-on-Month +0.3%)
3. Core CPI (excluding food and energy): Year-on-year: +3.4% (expected +3.5%, previous value +3.6%); Month-on-month: +0.2% (expected +0.3%, previous value +0.3%)
Expectations for interest rate cuts heat up: After the data was released, the market's probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September rose to over 70% (previously at 50%).
U.S. Treasury yields fell: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined by about 10 basis points in a single day.
US Dollar Weakens: The Dollar Index (DXY) Falls Below 104.0
The Federal Reserve may start a rate-cutting cycle in the fall of 2025. Focus on the June CPI (to be released on July 10) and the Federal Reserve's quarterly economic forecast (September FOMC)