Is Bitcoin Following the Same Cycle 346 Days Post the Last Halving?

Bitcoin's price shows clear patterns following each halving cycle.

Bitcoin typically peaks 540 days after halving with major price movements.

Current price action suggests Bitcoin is nearing another key cycle peak.

The price history of Bitcoin (BTC) is typically established by more than just a few periodic cycles of the currency; its price and performance generally seem to be highly correlated with the halving of BTC. The so-called Bitcoin Halving Rainbow then speaks to how BTC prices go after different halves/halvings, mapping on the possible future of Bitcoin

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Following the notation from this graph, historical records suggest that Bitcoin's actions have run through a much-expected spate of price surges and corrections, with prices topping out approximately 540 days after each halving from previous cycles. As of now, Bitcoin stands at 346 days counting since its last halving event in April 2024, and the price trend looks to closely resemble that of history.

A Regular Pattern: Post-halving Cycles of Price Movements for Bitcoin

As it happens, the Bitcoin Halving Rainbow pretty graphically portrays this price movement in relation to each halving event. The 1st of all halving events: November 28, 2012. That halving pretty much lit the fire for BTC bullishness. Within 366 days, it increased to $1000 and actually made a complete dash from below $1 to over $1000. Market behavior in those early days dictated the cycles that followed-from then on, price behavior after halving consistently went in an upward direction.

The cycle, as in 2016 post-halving, recorded further upward prices immediately after halving, peaking 526 days later. A peak of this cycle touches on a critical moment in price's reversal track, then a "bottom" record is registered after 777 days post-halving. The lowest level for this period was in early 2018, recording the effects of the prolonged correction post-2017 bull market

Observed immediately after the 2020 halving is another similar pattern: a peak occurred around 548 days after the halving, while a trough happened 924 days after the event. All the above cycles would show that Bitcoin reacts very positively in the bullish direction post a halving event, and in between are correction periods that eventually end in price bottoms.

Present Market Situations: Is this Same Pattern Resuming for Bitcoin?

Currently, Bitcoin is on the 346th day since the last halving in April 2024, and the chart indicates it is also possibly mimicking earlier cycles even though it is still in the early stages of this process. The Bitcoin Halving Rainbow chart shows large upward movements of Bitcoin prices in the months following the halvings, to then generally reach the peak around 540 days after it. Given that Bitcoin's price has been testing resistance points, traders and investors are now watching the market for signs of yet another potential breakout in the coming months.

Current market analysis also states that Bitcoin's position currently in the cycle should indicate a very critical juncture. BTC is quite close to the 350-day mark, which under historical trends means that a very steep price rise is imminent. It is worth considering, though, that while changes in price based on previous halvings have occurred time and again, there is no saying about what the future will entail. Factors such as market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and technical recent developments in modeling and algorithms will determine the final outcome.