BTC High Pressure Alert: Triple Critical Indicator Resonance, Market Turning Point Imminent

Original Author: Ethan

Reprint: Daisy, Mars Finance

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating at a high level, repeatedly oscillating around the key technical support level of $115,000, seemingly caught in a stalemate of "being stuck between a rock and a hard place."

Beneath the calm surface, turbulent currents are brewing: market trading volume continues to shrink, investor sentiment is becoming cautious, and three core on-chain indicators—futures short leverage strength, the degree of realized profit release on-chain, and the movements of whale funds—are all approaching historical extremes simultaneously. This rare synchronized critical state of the three indicators makes the current market structure exceptionally fragile, with significant high-pressure conditions. Any unusual movement in a key indicator could trigger a sharp market fluctuation.

Signal 1: Bears continue to exert pressure, OI net positions drop below the $100 million warning line.

According to CryptoQuant data, on July 25, the net open interest (OI) in the BTC futures market once again fell below the $100 million mark, reaching a new low since early July and entering the "maximum short pressure" zone. This means that short contracts dominate the funding structure, severely compressing the leverage space for longs.

The historical pattern reveals the significance of warnings: Whenever the net open interest (OI) enters this area (such as in October 2023, early March 2024, and early July 2025), the market often experiences significant fluctuations in the short term. Extreme bearish pressure usually leads to local bottoms or triggers explosive short-term rebounds.

Potential Explosive Point Analysis: Short positions continue to increase, expecting the price to eventually break downward. However, from the perspective of market behavioral science, an extremely crowded short structure itself is a typical contrarian signal—once the price starts to rebound, large-scale stop-loss liquidations from shorts will create a "short squeeze" effect, driving the price to skyrocket. The core observation point of the current market is: can Bitcoin effectively break through the resistance range of $116,000-$118,000, igniting this "short powder keg."

Signal Two: Whales exerting pressure at the top, Galaxy Digital transfers another 3,700 BTC.

While the futures structure is highly tense, the on-chain "spot" variable - the behavior of whale holders - has also not provided the bulls with any breathing space.

On-chain data shows that since July 15, an old wallet address holding over 80,000 BTC has been continuously transferring assets to exchanges and new addresses. This address was subsequently identified as being held by Galaxy Digital, which is assisting in the sale of this batch of early mining assets in installments.

Latest Trends and Position Insights:

As of July 24, the confirmed outflow has exceeded 68,000 BTC, flowing into new addresses of exchanges such as Binance, Bitstamp, OKX, Bybit, and suspected OTC buyers.

In just 24 hours, the address distributed 3,715 BTC (approximately $428 million) to 12 new addresses.

The wallet currently holds 18,504 BTC, worth over 2.1 billion dollars.

Market Interpretation and Strategic Impact: For the market, the positions that Galaxy has yet to liquidate remain a looming "Sword of Damocles." Although current prices have not significantly declined, the real selling pressure on-chain is far from over, which provides the shorts with a reason to maintain their positions. It is noteworthy that the pace of their outflows (small batches, multiple batches) indicates that they are adopting a "gentle but persistent" distribution strategy, aiming to avoid a concentrated sell-off that would impact the market. This strategy may alleviate short-term panic risks, but it could also extend the suppression period and delay the time window for the market to thoroughly strengthen.

Signal Three: Profit-taking clusters cash out, 7-day PNL hits second highest this year.

The third major warning signal on-chain has emerged: Bitcoin's 7-day average net realized profit (PNL) soared to 1.9 billion USD on July 24, reaching the second-highest point since 2025, only behind the peak in March.

Historical backtesting associated risks: The past three peaks of profit realization (November 2023, March 2024, January 2025) all indicate varying degrees of an impending stage-top formation. The underlying logic is that high prices prompt holders to concentrate on realizing profits. If subsequent buying pressure is insufficient, the selling pressure will self-reinforce, leading to a "profit-taking topping formation."

Current Assessment and Warning:

Although the BTC price has not reached new highs, the PNL indicator is rising rapidly, showing that a large amount of capital has chosen to secure profits early.

Some sell-offs may come from long-term holders (LTH) who have held their coins for over 1 year, and their outflow often indicates a weakening of confidence among mid-term traders.

Key divergence point: Although the cash-out scale of 1.9 billion dollars has not reached historical peak levels and falls within the category of a "healthy adjustment," if this indicator continues to rise in the coming days while prices remain stagnant, it could confirm the risk of a reversal in bullish and bearish forces.

High Pressure Market: The Long and Short Game at the Critical Point

The current market presents a typical "three-fold critical" high-pressure structure: the futures short leverage has reached its peak, on-chain profit-taking is accelerating, and the selling pressure from whales remains unresolved. Any sudden change in a single variable is enough to break the current fragile balance and trigger a new round of market movement.

Core logic of the long-short confrontation:

Bearish View: BTC price is constrained by the resistance level of 118,000 USD, Galaxy's unliquidated positions, and high PNL, leading to continued downside risk.

Multiple parties rely on: excessive short leverage betting (potential for short squeezes), diminishing marginal selling pressure, and the accumulation of structural rebound momentum.

Historical experience and path deduction: Such high-pressure states are difficult to maintain for long. The key watershed lies in:

If it effectively breaks below the support level of $112,000, it will confirm a short-term downward trend.

If there is a strong breakout above the resistance zone of $118,000, it may trigger a large-scale short squeeze, pushing the price up rapidly.

Investor Strategy Recommendations:

In the face of high uncertainty, short to medium-term investors should not heavily bet on a single direction at this time. Compared to "chasing highs and selling lows," reducing leverage, closely monitoring fund flows and technical structure changes, and waiting for clear directional signals before making decisions is a more prudent strategic choice.

Conclusion: Avoid unilateral betting and maintain flexible strategies.

The Bitcoin market is at a critical moment of extreme confrontation between bulls and bears. This is neither a one-sided bull market acceleration period nor a bear market confirmation period, but a typical "consolidation" window.

On one hand, the on-chain fundamental indicators (such as active addresses and transaction frequency) have not yet significantly declined, indicating that market vitality still exists; on the other hand, the position structure, price momentum, and sentiment indicators are all nearing their limits. Any leading force (bullish/bearish) breaking through first could trigger a chain reaction of technical breakdowns and capital stampedes.

The market lacks the momentum for direction selection, only missing the opportunity for the final push. This opportunity may stem from a sudden macro favorable event, a giant whale finishing liquidation, or a round of concentrated liquidation clearing.

Maintaining flexibility in strategy before the trend settles is far better than making blind directional bets.