#创作者冲榜 How long can oil prices keep soaring? Is gold truly finished?

First, let's talk about oil prices: in the short term, it depends on the punch; in the medium term, on the stomach.

In the short term, as long as the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz continues, oil prices will stay high or even spike further. But in the medium term, the global economy's "stomach" (demand) is shrinking. Europe is in recession, and we are also transitioning. Without demand support, oil prices can't keep soaring like in the 1970s. Most likely: how they rise, they will fall back once the hype passes.

Now, about gold: the deeper the current fall, the deeper the future pit.

Gold is currently experiencing a "double kill."

· First kill: No more rate cut expectations. Previously, gold rose in anticipation of rate cuts. Now that rate cuts are off the table and even rate hikes are expected, that rally will be reversed.

· Second kill: Liquidity squeeze. High oil prices scared the stock market, and institutions, to cover their positions, are selling gold.

But beware, there is a huge "long-term paradox" here.

Although the Federal Reserve is currently talking tough, if oil prices really push the economy into recession, the Fed will have to cut rates to rescue the market. When that happens, it will be the true turning point for gold.

More importantly, the foundation of this gold bull market—the frantic buying of gold by global central banks—has not changed. Countries scared by U.S. dollar sanctions are still bringing gold home.

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Conclusion: Don’t be blinded by short-term volatility.

Here’s the plain truth:

1. Oil prices: won’t spiral out of control like in the 1970s. Because the U.S. is itself a major oil trader, and the global economy can’t handle $100 oil. The current rise is mostly driven by panic. Once geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices will deflate like a punctured balloon.

2. Gold: don’t touch it in the short term, don’t abandon it in the long term.

· Short-term (next 1-3 months): gold will still suffer. As long as the Fed keeps talking tough about “no rate cuts,” and oil remains high, the selling pressure on gold will persist. Buying the dip now risks catching it halfway up the mountain.

· Long-term (next 1-2 years): gold remains the most solid asset. The current decline isn’t because gold is failing, but because everyone is paying off overly optimistic rate cut expectations. When the Fed truly can’t hold out and starts cutting rates, or stagflation really hits, you’ll see that current prices are a rare “golden pit.”

Finally, a word of advice:

In this chaotic world, oil prices are the “blood pressure” of the economy—too high, and it risks a brain hemorrhage; gold is the “body temperature” of trust—too low, and it indicates everyone is starting to doubt everything. We’re not in the 1970s, but it’s even more complicated. When you don’t understand, remember—don’t chase highs, don’t panic, survive, and wait for the wind to come.