The U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly increased by 119,000 in September, making the Fed's interest rate cut decision more complicated.

On November 20, Britain's financial commentary on the U.S. September non-farm report pointed out that the U.S. labor market unexpectedly rebounded, which will complicate the Fed's decision on whether to cut interest rates next month. The September non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of 119,000, which not only exceeded the 50,000 predicted by economists surveyed but also significantly surpassed the revised figure of 22,000 for August. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, reaching a new high since 2021. This report is the first economic health indicator released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics since the record government shutdown led to the interruption of official data releases. The unexpectedly positive data will strengthen the stance of the hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee, who have consistently warned that the Fed should not cut rates too quickly. Following the data release, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index both fell. Although U.S. President Trump has long pressured the Fed to cut rates, there are deep divisions within the Central Bank: one faction advocates continuing to cut rates at the December meeting to support the labor market, while another faction worries about exacerbating inflation risks. The government shutdown has compounded the Fed's decision-making challenges—regular economic report releases have been interrupted, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Wednesday that due to the halt in data collection during the shutdown, it will no longer separately release the October employment report, with some data merged into the November report release. (Jin10 )