XRP News: Bitwise XRP ETF's first-day trading volume is only $22 million, is the $3 target still far away?

November 20, XRP price plummeted 5.17% to $1.9985, touching a key psychological support level, mainly influenced by multiple factors such as weak Bitcoin performance, outflows from ETF funds, and cooling expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bitwise XRP ETF’s first-day trading volume reached $22 million, indicating steady institutional demand, but still lagging behind Canary XRP ETF’s first-day volume of $59 million, which exacerbated market pessimism.

On the macro front, ongoing pressure from the Trump administration’s China tariffs threats and uncertainty over Fed policy have caused XRP to decline a total of 30% since October 1. Short-term technical indicators are bearish, with the $2.0 level becoming a critical battleground between bulls and bears.

XRP Price Crash and Market Pressure Analysis

On November 20, XRP continued its decline, falling 5.17% daily to $1.9985, with a total drop of over 10% in two days. This level is not only a key psychological support but also the lowest point since April 2024. The crash is driven by increased selling pressure across the crypto market—Bitcoin hit a new low since April 2025, pulling major coins downward. Notably, the correlation between XRP and Bitcoin has strengthened recently, making XRP’s price directly affected by Bitcoin spot ETF capital flows. Since November, net outflows from US Bitcoin spot ETF markets have reached $3 billion, creating a contagious effect that makes it difficult for XRP to remain unaffected.

Market commentator Quinten pointed out on social media that the proportion of short-term holders in loss hit a record high. He cited data indicating: “During the COVID crash in 2020, 92% of short-term holders were at a loss when Bitcoin was at $3,750; during the FTX collapse, that figure rose to 94% (Bitcoin at $16,000). Currently, at around $89,000 Bitcoin, up to 99% of short-term holders are at a loss, marking the most severe short-term capitulation event on record.” Such widespread losses often intensify panic selling, forming a negative feedback loop.

On-chain data shows a divergence in XRP holder structure. Long-term holders (holding over 1 year) account for over 60%, indicating core community confidence remains intact, but frequent trading accounts in the short-term increase volatility. Derivatives markets show that mainstream CEX XRP perpetual contracts have turned negative in funding rates, indicating dominant short sentiment, and leveraged long positions are being liquidated, further accelerating the decline.

ETF Launch Performance and Market Expectation Discrepancy

On November 20, Bitwise XRP ETF officially launched trading, with a first-day volume of about $22 million. Although significantly higher than typical new ETF products, it still lags behind Canary XRP ETF’s first-day record of $59 million. This gap suppresses market sentiment, as investors initially expected larger asset management firms to bring in more funds. Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart commented: “With about 2 hours remaining in trading, Bitwise XRP ETF’s volume approached $22 million. As the second product launched a week after Canary, this performance is quite impressive, and Canary’s XRP remains the highest first-day ETF volume this year.”

Market participants previously favored XRP ETFs from Bitwise and Franklin Templeton, as these firms rank highly in ETF asset management. According to VettaFi data, Franklin Templeton manages $44.7 billion, ranking 19th; Bitwise manages $5.6 billion, ranking 56th; while Canary Capital’s debut was only $84.82 million, ranking 231st. In theory, a higher industry standing should attract more funds, but the current macro environment weakens this advantage.

Key Data Comparison of Spot XRP ETF

Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) first-day volume is $59 million, with issuer ranking 231, assets under management (AUM) of $84.82 million, listed on November 13, 2024. Bitwise XRP ETF’s first-day volume is $22 million, with issuer ranking 56, AUM of $5.6 billion, listed on November 20, 2024. Significant differences exist in issuer size and first-mover advantage, but future performance of Bitwise still depends on sustained capital inflows.

Part of the ETF liquidity shortfall stems from the overall market environment. In November, US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced net outflows of $3 billion, reflecting institutional investors’ preference for cash or traditional safe-haven assets amid macro uncertainty. Additionally, the timing of XRP ETF launches coincided with deleveraging phases in the crypto market, with chain liquidations suppressing spot demand. Historically, the long-term performance of ETF products depends more on the fundamentals of the underlying assets than initial launch figures, so subsequent capital inflow for Bitwise remains to be seen.

Macro Pressures and Policy Uncertainty Impact

This round of crypto market decline is highly correlated with macro events. On October 10, Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, sparking fears of escalating global trade tensions. Kobeissi Letter noted: “On October 6, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,272, with the total crypto market cap reaching $2.5 trillion. But after October 10, the market experienced a ‘mechanical’ shift, leading to a single-day liquidation of -$19.2 billion, and Bitcoin has not truly recovered since.” The persistent macro shocks—despite a trade deal between the US and China on October 30—continue to exert downward pressure.

Expectations of Fed policy shift delays are another key factor. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in December dropped from 50.1% on November 13 to 39.1% on November 20, down sharply from 98.8% on October 20. Recent FOMC member comments focus on persistent inflation and slight cooling of the labor market, hinting that easing policies may be delayed. XRP has fallen 16.4% since October 20, directly reflecting monetary policy expectations impacting risk assets.

US economic data vacuum period worsens market volatility. The lack of latest inflation and employment reports makes it hard for investors to assess the real economic situation, increasing susceptibility to leveraged liquidations. If future data shows moderate inflation slowdown and stable cooling of the labor market—without hard landing—the narrative may turn optimistic. But currently, XRP and the overall crypto market are caught in a “data-dependent” oscillation cycle.

Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels for XRP

From a technical perspective, XRP has broken below all key moving averages, including the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.4332 and the 200-day EMA at $2.5455, confirming a medium-term downtrend. The long lower wick on November 20 forms a “lower high and lower low” pattern, indicating sellers are in control. Volume increased during the decline, showing selling pressure has yet to be fully released.

Regarding support levels, the psychological $2.0 mark remains a battleground between bulls and bears. If broken, the next supports are at $1.9112 (September low of 2024) and $1.6147 (April bear market bottom). Resistance levels are concentrated around $2.2 (previous consolidation lower boundary), $2.35 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), and near the 50-day EMA at $2.5. Further resistance levels include $2.62, $2.8, and $3.0, requiring strong catalysts for breakthrough.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory below 30 but has not yet shown clear bullish divergence, suggesting any short-term rebound may be just a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. Watch for price reactions at key supports—long lower shadows on candles with volume increase could signal bullish reversal. Derivatives data show put/call ratios above 1.2, indicating rising protective demand but also potential contrarian opportunities.

Future Catalysts and Bull/Bear Scenario Outlook

Short-term catalysts include: macroeconomic data, policy signals, and ETF fund flows. If US services PMI falls below expectations, it could reignite rate cut expectations; dovish Fed comments could ease market anxiety; subsequent fund inflows into Canary and Bitwise XRP ETFs are crucial—single-day net inflows exceeding $50 million could boost confidence. Franklin XRP ETF launching on November 24 is also noteworthy, with its performance closely watched due to issuer reputation.

In a bear scenario, strong US PMI data, hawkish Fed tone, continued ETF outflows, or opposition in the US Senate to crypto-friendly legislation (such as the Market Structure Bill) could push XRP below $2.0. Breaking this level would test support at $1.9112, and further breakdown might challenge the April low of $1.6147. Regulatory risks are also significant—if the OCC delays or denies Ripple’s US banking license application, it could dampen ecosystem development outlook.

A bull scenario requires multiple positive catalysts: weak economic data, dovish Fed signals, strong XRP ETF inflows, major companies adopting XRP as reserves, and Ripple obtaining banking licenses. Such conditions could see a breakout above $2.2, testing $2.35, and then targeting the 50-day EMA around $2.5. For XRP to decouple from Bitcoin, positive ecosystem developments such as partnership progress with financial institutions or increased ODL adoption are necessary.

Industry Impact and Long-Term Trend Considerations

Although this correction is intense, the launch of the spot ETF remains a milestone—it signifies recognition of certain crypto assets by traditional finance extending beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum to other tokens. The correlation between XRP ETF and Bitcoin ETF flows reveals a new phenomenon: the crypto market is shifting from a “retail-driven” to an “institutional allocation” model, which could amplify inter-asset linkages.

Ripple’s regulatory progress is also key. If its US banking license application is approved, it could set a precedent for crypto-native firms to gain traditional financial licenses, easing XRP’s cross-border payment use cases. Meanwhile, the progress of the Market Structure Bill in the US will influence the compliance pathway for the entire crypto industry—if passed by the Senate, it might trigger institutional inflows similar to the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024.

From a broader perspective, this correction can be viewed as a healthy deleveraging process. The crypto market’s over-reliance on leverage and rate cut narratives before October led to a severe squeeze, clearing out vulnerable longs and laying a foundation for sustained long-term growth. Historical data from the 2020 COVID crash and FTX collapse suggest these dips often precede the next bull run.

FAQ

Why did XRP crash below $2.0?
XRP declined due to triple pressures: overall market weakness from Bitcoin underperformance, weaker-than-expected capital inflows into XRP spot ETF, and declining Fed rate cut expectations causing risk appetite to deteriorate. Technical breakdowns triggered leveraged long liquidations, accelerating the decline.

How did the Bitwise XRP ETF perform on its first day?
It recorded approximately $22 million in first-day volume, significantly above typical new ETF launches but still below Canary XRP ETF’s $59 million record. The gap amplifies bearish sentiment in a bear market environment.

How does Fed policy influence XRP?
Fed rate cut expectations impact liquidity preferences—when the probability of a rate cut decreases, risk assets like XRP tend to be sold off. The probability of a December rate cut has fallen from 98.8% in October to 39.1% now, closely aligning with XRP’s price decline.

What are key support and resistance levels for XRP?
Supports are at $2.0, $1.9112 (September low), and $1.6147 (April low). Resistance levels include $2.2, $2.35, and around the 50-day EMA at $2.5, with higher resistance at $2.62, $2.8, and $3.0.

What upcoming events could trigger a rebound?
Catalysts include: weaker-than-expected US services PMI or renewed rate cut expectations, dovish Fed remarks, sustained ETF fund inflows; longer-term factors involve Ripple’s banking license approval and increased adoption of XRP as reserves by large companies.