XRP Today's News: 99% of short-term holders are at a loss, breaking below the $2 critical level

As selling pressure intensifies across the entire cryptocurrency market, XRP drops below the $2 psychological support level. Due to weakness in Bitcoin, ETF fund outflows, and waning expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, XRP falls to a critical support level, exacerbating bearish market sentiment. After the launch of the Bitwise XRP ETF, demand remains strong, but with a trading volume of $22 million, it falls short of Canary’s debut volume of $59 million, putting short-term market sentiment under pressure.

All-Time Highest Surrender Rate: 99% Short-Term Holders Trapped

Well-known crypto commentator Quentin, with over 200,000 followers, commented on the loss ratio among short-term holders, stating: “During the COVID-19 crash in 2020, 92% of holders lost an average of $3,750. During the FTX collapse in 2020, 94% of holders lost $16,000. Today, 99% of holders are down $89,000. This is the highest short-term holder surrender rate in history.”

This 99% figure is highly shocking in XRP today news. It indicates that almost all investors who recently bought XRP are in losses, a rare extreme in crypto history. Comparing this number with past events emphasizes its severity: during the COVID crash in 2020, the loss rate was 92%; during FTX collapse, 94%; and now at 99%, surpassing those historic crises.

The $89,000 loss likely refers to Bitcoin’s price level, not the actual loss per XRP investor. This figure suggests current market panic levels are approaching or exceeding the most severe crises in crypto history. Psychologically, when 99% of short-term holders are in the red, markets often near the extreme panic bottom, and such extreme emotions can sometimes signal a reversal.

The record high surrender rate among short-term holders reflects extreme bearish sentiment. Surrender implies these holders may choose to cut losses and exit, turning unrealized losses into realized ones. This widespread capitulation often occurs before price bottoms, as the final wave of panic selling clears out, allowing the market to find true equilibrium afterward.

Bitwise ETF Underperformance Fails to Halt Decline

The Bitwise XRP ETF was launched on Thursday, November 20, showing strong institutional demand on its first day. However, its trading volume of $22 million falls short of Canary XRP ETF (XRPC)’s $59 million on the first day, pressuring market sentiment. Bloomberg industry analyst James Seffert commented on the first-day trading: “With about two hours left before trading closes, Bitwise’s XRP has already approached $22 million in volume today. As the second product launched about a week after Canary Funds’ XRPC, its performance is quite solid. XRPC was this year’s highest-volume issuance.”

While Seffert considers the performance “quite solid,” the $22 million still lags significantly behind XRPC’s $59 million on debut. This gap is significant in XRP today news, as it hints that market enthusiasm for XRP ETFs may be waning. The first product launch tends to enjoy peak attention and novelty, but subsequent products, even from more prominent issuers, may face demand diversion.

Analysts previously speculated that, given the rankings of Bitwise and Franklin Templeton among ETF asset managers, they would attract more demand. According to VettaFi data, Franklin Templeton ranks 19th in ETF asset management, with $44.7 billion AUM. Bitwise Asset Management ranks 56th, with $5.6 billion AUM. The first XRP spot ETF issuer, Canary Capital, is ranked 231st, with $84.8 million AUM.

However, market conditions may have impacted trading volume. For reference, the US Bitcoin spot ETF market experienced net outflows of $3 billion in November. This overall weakness in the crypto ETF market directly affects XRP ETF performance. When Bitcoin ETFs are undergoing large-scale redemptions, investor interest in newly launched XRP ETFs is naturally suppressed.

Considering Franklin Templeton’s prominent position in ETFs, the launch of Franklin XRP ETF on Monday, November 24, could be pivotal. As the 19th-ranked ETF issuer, Franklin Templeton has a broader distribution network and institutional client base. If the Franklin XRP ETF can generate significantly higher trading volume at launch than Bitwise and Canary, it could provide much-needed buying support for XRP.

45-Day Bear Market and Collapsing Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Thursday’s sell-off was not triggered by new market events. However, due to two major developments in October, market sentiment remains weak. The US government shutdown and President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods caused XRP’s price to drop 30% from October 1 to November 20. Kobeissi Letter commented on ongoing crypto sell-offs: “Crypto crash: just 45 days ago, on October 6, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,272. However, on October 10, after Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, market cap evaporated in record time.”

Kobeissi Letter pointed out: “Even if US-China trade deal is reached on October 30, liquidation pressure has not eased. Since November 10, Bitcoin has declined steadily, with daily liquidations approaching $1 billion. During this 45-day bear market, there have been almost no bearish fundamental developments for cryptocurrencies.” Kobeissi attributes this 45-day bear trend to excessive leverage and sporadic liquidations.

Despite the October 10 flash crash causing panic among investors, the weakening expectations of a Fed rate cut in December further fueled the selling momentum. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate cut dropped from 50.1% on November 13 to 39.1% on November 20. By comparison, the probability was 98.8% on October 20. Since October 20, XRP has fallen 16.4%, reflecting the Fed’s impact on market sentiment.

Technical Analysis: $2.00 as the Critical Battle Line

(Source: Trading View)

On November 20, XRP fell 5.17%, after dropping 4.94% the day before, closing at $1.9985. The token underperformed the overall crypto market, which declined 4.84%. Thursday’s continued sell-off pushed the trading price well below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), confirming a bearish trend.

Key Technical Levels to Watch Include

Support Levels: $2.00, $1.9112, and $1.6147

50-Day Moving Average Resistance: $2.4332

200-Day Moving Average Resistance: $2.5455

Resistance Levels: $2.20, $2.35, $2.50, $2.62, $2.80, $3.00, and $3.66

Looking ahead, several events could trigger a shift in market sentiment. Recent bullish catalysts include: US Services PMI data, Federal Reserve officials’ speeches and policy signals, inflows into Canary XRP ETF and Bitwise XRP ETF, institutional holdings of XRP as treasury reserves, regulatory milestones (Ripple’s US bank charter application, progress on the Congressional Market Structure Bill).

Bearish scenarios include: strong US PMI data reducing rate cut expectations, hawkish Fed comments, net outflows from XRP spot ETF reports, US Senate opposition to crypto-friendly legislation, blue-chip companies not holding XRP as treasury reserves, OCC delaying or rejecting Ripple’s US bank charter application. These bearish scenarios could push XRP toward $2.00. Falling below $1.9112 could target the April low of $1.6147.

Bullish scenarios include: weak Services PMI, dovish Fed commentary, strong inflows into XRP spot ETF, institutional holdings of XRP as treasury reserves, Ripple obtaining a US bank charter. Breaking above resistance at $2.20 could lead to testing $2.35 and the 50-day moving average, with the next key resistance at $2.50.

Lack of key US data and uncertainty in Fed policy continue to pressure market sentiment. The next 72 hours may determine whether XRP continues declining or begins rebounding toward $2.50. For XRP to decouple from BTC, fund flows into the XRP spot ETF will be critical.