XRP ETF listing faces a $528 million whale sell-off wave, a fight for the key $2 level begins

In November 2025, as XRP ETFs from Bitwise and Caanary list successively, XRP price unexpectedly declined by 5% to $2.11, starkly contrasting with expectations of increasing institutional interest. On-chain data shows that whale addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP sold 250 million tokens within 48 hours, worth $528 million, setting a monthly sell-off record. Meanwhile, the number of new XRP addresses surged to a monthly high, reflecting increased network participation driven by ETF developments. Market analysis suggests that current prices are at a critical decision point, with the $2.08 support level becoming a focal point for both bulls and bears.

ETF Feast and Price Paradox: Testing Market Expectations

When XRP ETFs from Bitwise and Caanary Capital launched on mainstream trading platforms in November 2025, the market initially anticipated a valuation re-rating cycle for XRP. However, the reality painted a confusing picture: despite significantly expanded institutional channels, XRP price fell 5% that week, reaching a monthly low of $2.11. This divergence between improving fundamentals and price action reveals the complex interactions between expectations and reality in the cryptocurrency market.

Historical precedent shows that early ETF listings often involve volatility. After Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved in January 2024, they experienced a two-week correction similar to “selling on the rumor, buying on the news,” before entering a prolonged upward trend. This pattern partly results from early investors taking profits during liquidity events and market makers needing time to build sufficient inventory and hedge positions. XRP ETF may be undergoing a similar adaptation phase.

Market microstructure analysis offers further insights. While ETF listing provides a regulated channel for institutional funds, the inflow of capital takes time to accumulate. In contrast, existing holders can execute sales immediately, creating a short-term supply-demand imbalance. Notably, XRP has risen 81% over the past 12 months, with many investors in significant profit positions, more inclined to lock in gains during major events.

Regulatory uncertainty continues to influence price behavior. Although Ripple has made significant progress in its legal battle with the US SEC, a clear regulatory environment remains elusive. Some cautious investors may choose to reduce risk exposure during the ETF listing event, waiting for more definitive regulatory signals. This “selling amid uncertainty” pattern is especially common among institutional investors.

XRP Market Key Data Comparison

• Price Performance: Down 5% weekly, trading at $2.11
• Whale Activity: Sold 250 million XRP in 48 hours, worth $528 million
• Network Growth: New addresses hit monthly high
• Technical Levels: Support at $2.08, resistance at $2.20
• Upcoming Listings: Grayscale and Franklin Templeton ETFs scheduled for next week trading

From a market psychology perspective, the highly anticipated ETF listing itself may create a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario. As the probability of ETF approval increases, forward-looking investors may have already accumulated positions, waiting to flip them to subsequent buyers upon actual listing. Such behavior is common in efficient markets, especially within assets with high information transparency.

Whale Play: Analyzing the Motives Behind Large-Scale Selling

On-chain data reveals the most direct reason for XRP price pressure: concentrated whale sales. In just 48 hours, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP collectively reduced their holdings by over 250 million tokens, valued at approximately $528 million at the time. This scale of sell-off in a relatively thin liquidity environment can significantly impact prices.

Position structure analysis suggests several motivations behind these sales. Some early investors may see ETF listing as a long-awaited exit opportunity, especially those who accumulated during 2020-2021. Data shows that some selling addresses had an average cost basis below $0.50, realizing over 300% returns at current prices. Profit-taking appears to be a rational adjustment for these investors.

Other sales may stem from portfolio rebalancing needs. Large investors might need to reduce XRP holdings to maintain target portfolio weights, especially as prices rise. This technical selling is unrelated to fundamentals, serving more as risk management. Rebalancing activities tend to increase at quarter-end or year-end.

Whale reductions may also reflect concerns over short-term liquidity. Although ETFs provide new demand, their initial scale may not fully absorb large whale sell orders. Rational whales may choose to sell gradually to avoid excessive market impact. While this cautious approach temporarily suppresses prices, it supports market health and orderly adjustment.

An exception is whales holding over 1 billion XRP, which did not significantly reduce holdings during this period. These largest holders, potentially long-term strategic investors like Ripple and its partners, maintain stable positions, providing market confidence.

New Entrants: ETF-Driven Network Engagement Growth

Contrasting whale sales, XRP’s network activity has markedly increased under ETF listing influence. The number of new addresses surged to a monthly high last week, aligning closely with the listing dates of Caanary Capital’s XRPC ETF and Bitwise’s XRP ETF, indicating these products are successfully attracting investors previously unfamiliar with XRP.

User behavior analysis shows that new addresses often represent different investment preferences and holding periods. Unlike short-term seeking whales, ETF investors tend to adopt a longer-term perspective with lower sensitivity to short-term price swings. This diversification of investor types can enhance market stability and reduce volatility driven by single-group trading.

Institutional participation channels expanding also reshape XRP’s liquidity profile. ETFs, as regulated financial products, attract allocations from traditional asset managers, pension funds, and insurers—entities with different investment horizons and risk appetites compared to native crypto investors. This creates market efficiency and arbitrage opportunities.

Network activity growth has positive network effects. More participants mean richer application scenarios and a stronger community ecosystem, which can support XRP’s practical value over the long term. For XRP, positioned as a cross-border payment solution, a broad user base is crucial for competing with traditional payment systems.

Upcoming listings of Grayscale XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) and Franklin Templeton XRP ETF (XRPZ) are expected to further reinforce this trend. These well-known asset managers’ branding and distribution networks may attract another wave of cautious investors. Based on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF experiences, the cumulative effect of ETFs often takes months to fully manifest.

Technical Critical Points: The Market Significance of Key Price Levels

From a technical perspective, XRP is currently at a critical decision point. The $2.08 support is not only a psychological round number but also a technical fortress that has defended downward moves multiple times over the past three months. Whether this level holds will determine the short-term market sentiment and subsequent price momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 42, indicating a neutral-weak zone—neither signaling an imminent oversold rebound nor a strong trend continuation. This technical positioning reflects market indecision at current levels, awaiting clearer catalysts. Historically, similar conditions often lead to breakout moves rather than prolonged consolidation.

Volume analysis adds complexity. Despite the price decline, XRP’s daily trading volume remains stable, showing no signs of panic selling. This volume-price relationship suggests the current selling pressure is more orderly profit-taking than panic exit. Market makers and institutional players seem to be leveraging this opportunity to accumulate positions ahead of the next rally phase.

Fibonacci retracement analysis places XRP near the 0.618 retracement of its decline from July’s high of $3.65, a key zone for trend reversal. Holding this support consolidates the bullish case and sets the stage for testing resistance at $2.20 and $2.28; losing this support could open space below $2.00.

Derivatives market data supports this technical view. XRP futures open interest has slightly increased during the price pullback, indicating restrained new short positioning. Meanwhile, options market put-call ratios remain stable, with no signs of heightened hedging demand. This calmness aligns with the technical decision point.

Institutional Deployment: Strategic Significance and Market Impact of ETFs

The successive launch of XRP ETFs marks an important milestone in the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies. Bitwise and Caanary Capital, as pioneers, provide initial product offerings, while Grayscale and Franklin Templeton will expand the product matrix. This competitive landscape ultimately benefits investors through lower costs, better liquidity, and richer features.

From capital flow perspectives, ETF accumulation effects take time to materialize. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $12 billion in net inflows in their first month, and Ethereum ETFs around $4.5 billion. Given XRP’s market cap and investor base, analysts project that XRP ETFs could attract $1.5–2.5 billion in net flows in the first quarter. This gradual capital injection provides steady price support.

ETF listings also alter XRP’s price discovery mechanism. Traditionally, crypto prices are driven by retail sentiment and speculative flows, but ETFs introduce demand from traditional asset management. Participants with different valuation models and risk management systems can lead to more fundamental-based pricing, reducing purely speculative volatility.

For Ripple, ETF products offer a significant legitimacy boost. As a project still engaging with regulators, endorsement from mainstream financial institutions indirectly affirms compliance and long-term viability. This confidence can translate into stronger partnerships and business expansion, further strengthening XRP’s ecosystem.

Globally, acceptance of XRP ETFs in the US will influence regulatory attitudes elsewhere. Jurisdictions like Singapore, Dubai, and the EU are closely watching US developments, and their decisions will shape XRP’s potential as a compliant global digital asset.

Investment Strategies: Balancing Bullish and Bearish Factors

In the current complex environment, investors should adopt a systematic decision-making framework. Short-term traders should monitor the $2.08 support for key defense; successful holding could signal a technical buy with targets around $2.20–$2.28. A breakdown risks further declines to $2.00–$1.95.

Medium to long-term investors should consider multiple factors: ETF capital flows, Ripple’s business progress, and regulatory developments. Improvements in these fundamentals often take time but can produce lasting price effects. A phased accumulation approach is recommended—building some positions at current levels while reserving funds for potential dips.

Risk management should be prioritized. XRP’s volatility warrants position sizing aligned with risk contribution, avoiding overconcentration. Additionally, monitoring regulatory updates, such as SEC’s stance on Ripple and legislation in Congress, is crucial—these can rapidly alter risk-reward dynamics.

Asset allocation-wise, XRP can serve as a differentiated component in portfolios. Its moderate correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with specific use cases in payments, offers diversification benefits. A suggested allocation ranges from 3% to 8%, depending on risk appetite and views on the payments sector.

FAQ

Why did XRP’s price drop after ETF listing was anticipated?

Primarily because whales took profits amid liquidity events, selling 250 million XRP within 48 hours. Meanwhile, ETF capital inflows require time to build, causing short-term supply-demand imbalance and price pressure.

How important is the $2.08 support level?

It’s a critical technical level that has defended declines multiple times over the past three months. Losing it could lead to a drop below $2.00, whereas holding it supports a potential rebound to $2.20–$2.28.

Does whale selling indicate loss of confidence in XRP?

Not necessarily. It may reflect portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking, or liquidity needs. Notably, whales with over 1 billion XRP have not significantly reduced holdings, indicating ongoing long-term confidence.

What impact will upcoming ETFs from Grayscale and Franklin Templeton have?

Their reputable branding and distribution channels may attract new funds, enhancing XRP ETF offerings. However, capital accumulation takes time; short-term effects may be limited.

How should retail investors operate in XRP now?

Short-term traders should focus on the $2.08 support and resistance levels; long-term investors can consider phased building, monitoring ETF flows, regulatory news, and managing positions carefully.