DOGE Price Prediction: Fear and Greed Index falls to 12, can ETF support $0.155

The Crypto Assets Fear and Greed Index has fallen to a level of 12, indicating “extreme fear,” for the first time since April, putting DOGE price predictions under severe test. DOGE has experienced a big dump of 16% from the beginning of the month and is currently seeking support around $0.155. Bitwise and Grayscale's Spot DOGE ETF is in preparation, and the automatic approval countdown of 20 days will end on Monday.

Extreme panic shrouds market sentiment, falling to freezing point

(Source: Coinglass)

Market sentiment is putting pressure on speculative trading, suppressing optimistic expectations for DOGE price predictions. The Fear and Greed Index has reached “Extreme Fear” levels, marking the first occurrence of such a pessimistic sentiment reading since April. The index has plummeted from a “Neutral” sentiment of 43 points to the current 12 points, reflecting deep concern among investors regarding the crypto market.

Funds are withdrawing from tokens closely related to social sentiment, with meme coins particularly affected. DOGE has not been spared either, having fallen 16% since its peak at the beginning of the month. This decline is not only on the price level but also signifies a collapse of market confidence. When the Fear and Greed Index drops to an extreme level of 12, it usually indicates that the market has entered a panic selling phase, with many investors choosing to cut their losses and exit.

Historically, extreme panic is often a signal of a market bottom. During the lowest point of the bear market in 2022, this index also dropped to single digits, after which the market saw a strong rebound. However, extreme panic does not mean an immediate reversal; the market may continue under such sentiment for weeks or even months. For DOGE price predictions, the key is when a catalyst will appear to reverse this pessimistic sentiment.

Meme coins are far more sensitive to market sentiment than other asset classes. The value of DOGE is largely built on community consensus and market atmosphere, lacking traditional fundamental support. Therefore, when fear dominates the market, DOGE often experiences a greater fall. This time, a 16% drop is relatively mild among meme coins, with some competitors seeing declines of over 30%.

DOGE ETF is a key lifeline

However, what sets DOGE apart from most other meme coins is its potential to gain regulatory approval in the U.S. trading financial markets. The Spot DOGE ETF from Bitwise and Grayscale is in preparation, providing an important bullish catalyst for DOGE price predictions. According to the Securities Act Section 8(a), the automatic approval countdown of 20 days will end on Monday. Unless the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) intervenes, demand from institutional investors may soon emerge.

The approval of the ETF will be a milestone event in the history of DOGE. The launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs brought in billions of dollars in capital inflow; although DOGE's scale may not be comparable, even hundreds of millions of dollars in institutional funds would be enough to make a significant impact for an asset with a market capitalization of about $24 billion. With this bullish scenario and the potential influx of new capital that could be attracted, DOGE may be able to find the strength needed to cope with the current market panic.

The significance of the ETF lies not only in the inflow of funds but also in the endorsement of compliance. For a long time, meme coins have been regarded as high-risk speculative targets, and regulatory bodies and traditional financial institutions have been reserved about them. If the SEC approves the DOGE ETF, it would be equivalent to officially recognizing it as a legitimate investment target. This recognition will attract institutional funds that were previously unable to invest in Crypto Assets due to compliance concerns.

Potential Impact of DOGE ETF Approval

Institutional Fund Inflow: Pension funds and asset management companies can allocate DOGE through compliant channels.

Liquidity Improvement: ETF trading will increase market depth and reduce price volatility.

Brand Upgrade: Transitioning from meme coin to institutional-grade asset identity

However, the countdown on Monday does not guarantee automatic approval. The SEC has previously delayed or rejected Crypto Assets ETF applications multiple times. If the SEC chooses to intervene or requests further review, the market may face a shock of disappointment, and the DOGE price prediction will need to be reassessed.

Technical Analysis: $0.155 as the Bull-Bear Threshold

(Source: Trading View)

DOGE is still under pressure, but the strong support around $0.155 may turn its recent rebound into a bullish trend. This level coincides with the lower boundary of a descending triangle that has persisted for a year and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous bull market cycle of DOGE, which is a common bottom indicator during pullbacks.

The descending triangle is a classic bearish continuation pattern characterized by a series of lower highs while the lows consolidate horizontally near a support level. The DOGE descending triangle has been in place for a year, and such a prolonged consolidation typically indicates an imminent directional breakout. The support level of 0.155 dollars is both the lower boundary of the triangle and a critical psychological barrier.

The recent double bottom pattern has added weight to this layout, positioning $0.155 as the basis for a breakout attempt. The double bottom pattern is a reversal signal in technical analysis, formed when the price touches the same low point twice and rebounds. This pattern indicates strong buying support at that price level, with sellers unable to push the price lower. If DOGE can hold above $0.155 and break upward, it will confirm the validity of the double bottom pattern.

Momentum indicators support this trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, with lows continuously rising, while lower time frames show that the DOGE price forecast lows are continuously declining, indicating weakening selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also reflects this change, pulling back near the signal line after a brief death cross. The strengthening of these momentum indicators suggests that the market may be close to a bottoming phase.

Breaking through the resistance level of 0.20 USD and turning it into a support level will provide a more solid foundation for DOGE price predictions. 0.20 USD is an important psychological level and has been a price level that has previously served multiple times as support turned resistance. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, DOGE will enter a healthier upward channel.

Upward target 1 USD, downward risk 0.085 USD

A clean and sleek triangle breakout indicates a price increase of about 220%, returning to the historical peak around $0.50, with a final target price of $1, representing a potential increase of up to 540%. This DOGE price prediction is based on the measurement rules of technical analysis: the target price after a descending triangle breakout is usually the height of the pattern plus the breakout point.

0.50 USD is the peak that DOGE reached during the bull market in 2021, and it is also the cost range for many investors. If the price returns to this level, it will release a large amount of trapped chips and may face profit-taking pressure. However, if combined with strong catalysts such as ETF approval, breaking through 0.50 USD may open a new stage of price discovery. 1 USD is the long-term dream target of the DOGE community, although it is aggressive, it is not entirely impossible.

However, to achieve this sustained rise, the price trend may need to align more closely with bullish views such as ETF. If approval cannot be obtained, the trend pattern of DOGE may be disrupted, and the downside risk will become more pronounced. Although asset management companies are betting on this coin, the likelihood of it falling to 0.01 dollars seems low; however, the 0.382 Fibonacci levels of 0.115 dollars and 0.085 dollars are reliable downside support levels.

If the $0.155 support fails, the next line of defense is at $0.115, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. In a more extreme scenario, the $0.085 0.382 Fibonacci level will become the last bastion. Falling below this level will open the way to $0.05 or even lower, but considering the ETF expectations and technical support, the probability of this scenario is relatively low.