Signs of the end of a bull run: "Bull Tail" is the fattest and everyone is bullish.

The market has entered a dangerous mode of "bad news is good news," a phenomenon that has played out before major market tops in the past. This article is sourced from a piece by Wall Street Journal, organized, translated, and written by Shen Chao. (Background: Bitcoin whale switches to going long on Ethereum, "earning $39.36 million in three days," analysts: ETH will outperform BTC in the short to medium term) (Background: The sleeping Bitcoin whale has awakened after ten years! Transferred 3,000 BTC for a profit of 34,548%, is market selling pressure coming again?) The dangerous signal of "bad news is good news." Last Friday, US stocks plummeted across the board, with the Nasdaq index falling more than 3%, the worst in six months, and the market sensed a whiff of danger. Is the bull run nearing its end? Legendary Wall Street investor Paul Tudor Jones warned in the past few days that the market may experience another strong rally, but it has also entered the final stages of the bull run. He believes that the gains will be concentrated in advance, followed by a dramatic reversal. This pattern is the final common destination of all speculative market phases and "melt-up" moments. A "melt-up" moment usually comes with the richest returns and the most intense fluctuations, also signaling that risks are accelerating. The current market psychology may have become increasingly fragile. Veteran investor Leon Cooperman cited Warren Buffett's warning that when the market enters a phase where any strategy can make money, crowd behavior shifts from rational investing to "fear of missing out" (FOMO). In his view, the current rally has departed from fundamental support, such as profit or interest rates, and is purely driven by the price increase itself. Even more worrisome is that, according to Bloomberg analyst Simon White, the market has entered the dangerous mode of "bad news is good news." In this phase, weak economic data may actually stimulate the stock market to rise, as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy as a result. This counterintuitive phenomenon has played out before major market tops in the past. The final frenzy? The current market environment bears a striking resemblance to the internet bubble period of 1999. Paul Tudor Jones pointed out that the last year of a bull market often yields the most significant returns, but it also comes with increased volatility. As analyzed in an article by RealInvestmentAdvice.com, every bubble has a core story. The story of 1999 was the internet, while the story of 2025 is artificial intelligence, both bringing vast imaginative space for reshaping industries and igniting productivity. This similarity manifests at the psychological level. At that time, investors flocked to the market out of "fear of missing out," pushing the price-to-earnings ratios of companies like Cisco above 100 times. Today, the narrative that "if AI will change everything, you cannot afford not to own it" is driving the same behavior. Despite abundant liquidity, massive fiscal deficits, and interest rate cuts by global central banks still supporting the bull market, these factors are precisely the roots of market instability. When almost all asset classes—from large-cap stocks to gold and Bitcoin—hit historical highs and are highly correlated, a reversal could trigger a chain reaction. The "Buffett Indicator" flashing red lights and narrative risks When the market is driven by narratives rather than fundamentals, risks emerge quietly. Leon Cooperman warns that investors are buying simply because prices are rising, and this behavior "never ends well." The "Buffett Indicator," which measures the market's total market capitalization relative to GDP, has surpassed 200%, exceeding all historical extremes, indicating a severe disconnection between the stock market and the real economy. The risk is that when everyone weaves "rational narratives" for the rising assets they hold, consensus becomes extremely crowded. As investment master Bob Farrell said: "When all experts and forecasts agree, something else is about to happen." Currently, almost all investors expect prices to continue rising, and this one-sided bet makes the market exceptionally sensitive to any minor unfavorable news, potentially triggering disproportionate violent reactions. The dangerous signal of "bad news is good news" According to Bloomberg's Simon White, the market entering the "bad news is good news" mode is a significant feature of a top being formed. Investors ignore economic slowdowns and instead cheer for the expectation that the Federal Reserve will step in to save the market. Historical data shows that this mechanism has played out before the last three major market tops, as well as before the market tops in 2011 and 2015. However, the analysis also provides two cautions. First, this mechanism may last for several months before the market truly experiences a pullback. Second, this pattern has also appeared in the middle of bull markets over the past two decades. But considering the current potential over-investment in the AI sector, record valuations, and growing speculative bubbles, no one dares to assert that this is merely a "halftime break." Related reports Related reports "80,000 Bitcoin whale" selling off nearing an end? 68,000 BTC has been cleared, Galaxy Digital transferred another 3,715. Is the "80,000 Bitcoin whale" really selling? Suspected transfer of $1.67 billion BTC to the exchange, transferring back hundreds of millions of U. The dormant "Satoshi era" Bitcoin whale has transferred all 80,000 BTC to Galaxy, high point sell-off? <The Symptoms of the End of the Bull Market: The 'Bull Tail' is the Most Plump and Everyone is Bullish> This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.