The U.S. Needs Europe More Than Expected – Study Reveals EU’s Export Power

The United States is far more dependent on the European Union for imports than previously thought. A new study by Germany’s IW economic institute shows that Europe now surpasses China not only in the value but also in the number of product groups on which American buyers rely. This shift gives Brussels unexpected leverage in trade disputes with Washington.

EU Surpasses China in Key Sectors According to IW, the number of product groups where at least half of U.S. imports come from the EU jumped from 2,600 in 2010 to over 3,100 in 2024. This includes a wide range of goods – from chemicals and machinery to electronics and household appliances. In dollar terms, U.S. imports tied to these categories from Europe reached $287 billion last year, nearly two and a half times higher than in 2010. By comparison, China supplied 2,925 groups worth $247 billion, with its share steadily shrinking due to “de-risking” policies.

Von der Leyen Held a Stronger Position The IW study suggests that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had a stronger hand in recent tariff talks with Washington than previously acknowledged. The outcome was a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods – a compromise that, in hindsight, appears more favorable to Europe. According to co-author Samina Sultan, the data can serve as a warning: if the U.S. escalates tariffs further, it risks “shooting itself in the foot,” as many American sectors would struggle without European supplies.

Europe’s Potential Weapon: Export Restrictions IW notes that, as a last resort, the EU could restrict exports of critical goods – a move that would hit the U.S. economy quickly. While such a step remains unlikely, the very existence of this option strengthens Europe’s negotiating power amid rising tensions.

Bessent: U.S. Won’t Act Against China Without Europe Energy policy has also entered the debate. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington will not impose new tariffs on China’s oil-linked goods unless Europe joins in. “We won’t move forward without Europe,” he stressed. The Trump administration is pressing the EU to introduce 50% to 100% tariffs on China and India over their purchases of Russian oil. Bessent even argued that if Europe imposed tough secondary tariffs, the war in Ukraine could be “over within 60 to 90 days” by cutting off Russia’s primary revenue stream.

Europe’s Export Card The IW study positions Europe not just as a partner, but as a strategic power broker holding a vital economic lever. If transatlantic tensions escalate, the EU’s ability to control exports may prove decisive in tariff and energy disputes.

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