Citibank predicts Ethereum will only reach $4,300 by the end of the year, with large outflows of ETF funds being the biggest concern.

Ethereum (ETH) has been consolidating between $4,200 and $4,700 since reaching an all-time high last August. Although the market generally expects strong performance from cryptocurrencies in the fourth quarter, a recent research report released by Citigroup takes a more conservative stance, predicting that the price of ETH will only reach $4,300 by the end of the year, well below the optimistic expectations of some institutions.

Citigroup views Ethereum with caution: Outflows from ETF are a key concern

(Source: Trading View)

According to a report by Reuters, Citigroup attributes the demand for Ethereum mainly to the growing popularity of tokenization and stablecoins. However, the bank also warns that the recent price trend of ETH may be driven more by market sentiment than by fundamentals. The Citigroup report clearly states, "The current price is above expectations, potentially driven by buying pressure and enthusiasm for use cases."

One of the main concerns affecting the future of Ethereum is the flow of funds into ETFs. Citigroup predicts that the inflow of funds attracted by ETH ETFs will be significantly weaker compared to Bitcoin, which could dampen its bullish momentum. This forecast aligns with recent market performance—ETH spot funds have experienced significant outflows over the past few weeks, and although there has been a brief rebound recently, the overall trend is concerning.

Institutional Viewpoint Divergence: Standard Chartered Bank Predicts $7,500

Interestingly, not all financial institutions agree with Citibank's cautious stance. Standard Chartered Bank recently raised its year-end target price for Ethereum significantly to $7,500, citing that the asset holds a stronger market position in digital government bonds and staking yields.

At the same time, BlackRock invested $363 million to acquire Ethereum, further boosting market confidence in the long-term value of ETH. This apparent divergence in institutional perspectives reflects the complexity and uncertainty of the current crypto market.

Ethereum Future Trends: Multiple Possibilities Coexist

Citibank listed a series of potential trends for Ethereum in its report:

Bullish Scenario: Driven by the increasing adoption rate by institutions and the rising activity of decentralized applications, the price of ETH could climb to $6,400.

Bearish Scenario: If macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or the stock market faces a downturn, the price of ETH may drop significantly to $2,200.

At the same time, digital asset bank Sygnum painted a more optimistic outlook, pointing out that the following factors could become catalysts for the rise in ETH prices:

· The network improvements brought by the Ethereum technology upgrade

· Supply tightening caused by a reduction in foreign exchange reserves

· The interest of institutional investors continues to grow

· Current Market Conditions and Short-Term Outlook

The current trading price of Ethereum is close to $4,500, about 8% lower than its historical peak. With institutional demand gradually recovering, but the uncertainty brought by ETF fund flows increasing, the next few months will be a critical period for determining the direction of ETH prices.

The market will closely monitor the following key indicators:

1. The stability of ETF capital flows.

2. The continued participation of institutional investors

3. Ethereum network activities and development progress

4. Changes in the macroeconomic environment

As the end of the year approaches, whether Ethereum is close to Citigroup's conservative forecast of $4,300 or accelerating towards more optimistic targets of $6,400 or even $7,500 will depend on the combined effects of these factors.