Gold's direction will depend less on geopolitical headlines

Gold has fallen for the tenth consecutive trading day, setting a record for the longest losing streak in history. Market optimism quickly faded after Trump's comments on potential developments in the Middle East. Iran previously dismissed the possibility of negotiations, and reports indicated that Gulf allies could be involved. This conflict has intensified inflation risks and reinforced expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer, which puts pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. Since the conflict erupted on February 28, gold has been declining weekly, as rising energy prices and geopolitical risks are increasingly being offset by higher real yields and a stronger US dollar. Recent weakness has also been exacerbated by forced selling, as investors close gold positions to offset losses elsewhere in their portfolios, rather than due to deteriorating long-term fundamentals for gold.

Ultimately, gold's direction will depend less on geopolitical headlines and more on how these events affect inflation, monetary policy expectations, and real interest rates. #特朗普对伊朗军事打击推迟五天 #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅