Daily Market Analysis——BTC

BTC reached the main force control line at 75180, and accompanied by a 15-minute level top divergence, a sharp decline occurred. From the current conditions, the large-scale retracement is nearing its end, and the small-scale downtrend momentum continues to extend.

From the weekly trend perspective, this month rebounded from the second downtrend consolidation lower band on the daily line at the beginning of the month, and has successively reached various long-cycle resistance levels. Moving higher only means even more severe bearish divergence pressure (a high-frequency area for bull traps). Bulls should not rashly participate; instead, be more vigilant and take advantage of the pull-back structure after rallies.

From the 12-hour to daily trend, the current price is in a pullback structure after reaching previous resistance. There is no volume breakout, so we need to be cautious of direct downtrends. However, if daily line can maintain stability above 73320 for 3-5 days, once the time condition is met, there is potential for an upward move extending toward 78510-81630 (or utilizing small-level support to contest).

From the 4-hour structure, the intertwined long and short pattern is evident, with mid-short-term support and long-cycle resistance coexisting, while K-lines maintain upward momentum in the middle zone between the two. This creates some interference in trend judgment. Based on experience, this suits the "fall first then buy, rise first then sell" approach—what I frequently call the reverse after forming a separation segment.

From the 1-hour and lower levels observing intraday movement, the downtrend segment following the 15-minute top divergence continues. Moving higher only maintains oscillation with the morning high as the peak, offering little trading opportunity. However, if it continues lower, the small-level bullish-aligned moving average system will provide certain rebound support for price.

Summary: Large-scale levels generally sit at long-cycle resistance, moving higher only means more intense bearish divergence pressure—need to guard against bull trap moves; small-scale bullish alignment persists downward, with local low-buying rebound opportunities.

Aggressive support: 73150-72940 (Monitor for rebound catches, gradual dips preferred)
Short-term support: 72368-71929 (Quick in, quick out)
Secondary support: 70730-68899 (1:2 sharp drop rebound catch)
Short-term resistance right in current zone; monitor 1H MA30 breakdown retest probes; secondary resistance 78510-81630

Note: Today's support levels are generally from small intraday probes; can be traded while monitoring. The short, medium, and long-term support mentioned in Monday's article are generally effective. Though multiple levels, they represent different time periods across different levels—tradeable sequentially, gradual dips trade sequentially, sharp dips skip one level. #BTC