War Won't Interrupt the Long Bull, Short Bear Trend of US Equities

A psychological massage for myself and everyone:
Based on US equity data from 1940-2026, US stock performance after major geopolitical shock events:
1 month: Average -0.9%, Median -0.2%, Probability of gain 46%
3 months: Average +0.8%, Median +2.7%, Probability of gain 66%
6 months: Average +3.4%, Median +5.3%, Probability of gain 61%
1 year: Average +3.0%, Median +7.4%, Probability of gain 65%
The comparison reveals that geopolitical events (wars/assassinations/terrorist attacks/escalating conflicts) such as the Cuban Missile Crisis/1967 Third Middle East War/2003 Iraq War/Russia-Ukraine conflict, will not fundamentally alter the bear market trend. Only "systemic financial risks" cause prolonged US equity bull markets to end.
Cases in point (preceded by the 1973 Fourth Middle East War): the 1973 oil embargo/2008 financial crisis, where US equities fell more than 30%.
The US saw an 18% pullback after 9/11, though most believe this was primarily influenced by the aftershocks of the 2000 internet bubble burst. Post-9/11 reconstruction work actually benefited economic development.
Additionally, note that this table only includes various geopolitical conflict events and excludes other impacts (such as the COVID-19 pandemic). The table only shows price changes at expiration and does not account for maximum drawdowns during the periods. For example, the 2007/2008 financial crisis shows a 41% decline one year later in the chart, but the actual S&P 500's maximum drawdown was 46% and Nasdaq 45%.
Therefore, a 10% pullback in US equities around this year's midterm elections would be about right, and deeper declines are not yet visible. #Gate2月衍生品市场份额创新高