#原油价格上涨 Don't Mistake a Rebound for a Reversal

Middle East tensions have escalated and spread to the crude oil market, truly "adding fuel to the fire." Oil prices have taken off again, defying the IEA's announcement of releasing 400 million barrels of emergency petroleum reserves to the market and other bearish factors. Prices have surged strongly, breaking through the 90 mark, with WTI crude reaching a high of $95.97. Is this the beginning of a new trend? Little Finance God advises everyone to remain rational—this rally looks more like a rebound rather than a reversal.

👉 US-Iran conflict unlikely to be resolved in the short term; oil prices will fluctuate at high levels

First, let's examine why oil prices could rise against the wind despite two major bearish factors: "Trump saying military action will end" and "the IEA announcing the release of 400 million barrels of emergency reserves to the market." The fundamental reason is that the US-Iran war will be difficult to resolve in a short timeframe. Today, Iranian President Pezeshkian proposed the "only way" to end the current war sparked by the US and Israel: recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of war reparations, and firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression. The second condition reveals that Iran's desire for a ceasefire is not strong, and the US-Israel cannot possibly accept humiliating war reparations without being in a disadvantaged position, let alone when they currently hold the initiative in this war. Against this backdrop, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains an issue. This morning, Iran's new supreme leader stated that the Strait of Hormuz must be closed, and coupled with the full evacuation of Oman's crude export terminals and the halting of Iraqi oil ports, Middle Eastern oil exports collectively face "difficult births." The situation of elevated oil prices will be hard to ease in the short term.

👉 Crude oil differs from gold; speculative trading is difficult to sustain

Many people will ask whether US-Iran war signals the beginning of a bull market in crude oil and naturally compare it to the previous gold bull market. However, these two are fundamentally different. Gold, as a low-circulation precious metal with wealth storage value, is recognized due to its low output, rarity, and universally accepted value. As a resource not needed in daily life, similar to Bitcoin, its price can be arbitrarily inflated and will be in a long-term bull market. However, oil is an industrial base resource, essential for daily production and material processing in everyday life. Unless there is a fundamental long-term change in the situation (such as the US-Iran war developing into a prolonged conflict or long-term OPEC production cuts), prices won't keep climbing northward, with short-term speculation being more likely. Moreover, it's worth noting that in today's era of thriving new energy, crude oil demand is already gradually declining. From a long-term perspective, it also lacks the foundation for a bull run.

👉 Oil prices will long-term retrace to $70; closely monitor resistance near $100

Global oil supply in 2026 is expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels/day, with total annual supply reaching 106.3 million barrels/day, while demand is only 104.3 million barrels/day, with a clear oversupply situation. The core logic of this round of oil price surge is Hormuz Strait shipping concerns triggered by Israeli-Persian conflict. Once the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal navigation and Iranian crude exports return to normal, coupled with the release of idle capacity from OPEC+, the war premium in oil prices will be quickly erased, with around $70 being the reasonable price center determined by supply-demand relationships. These past two days, attention should be paid to Brent crude's breakthrough near $100. If it can effectively break through and consolidate above $100, one can go long on short-term basis; otherwise, you can boldly short crude oil and place stop losses above $105.

What are your views on crude oil prices? Will it be a long-term bull market? Welcome to comment and interact. Wishing everyone prosperity every day!