I. Technical Aspect: Key Support Levels Are in Jeopardy

1. ETH is currently in a weak, oscillating, slightly bearish technical pattern, and the market direction remains unclear.
On the daily chart of moving averages and patterns, ETH is now trading around 2280, having fully broken below it. Multiple short-term moving averages such as MA7, MA30, and MA120 are in place, with MA7 turning downward, forming immediate resistance above. The Bollinger Bands have opened downward and then stabilized, presenting an overall bearish alignment.

2. Key levels, critical support: 2,250 - 2,263 range, short-term resistance: 2,300 - 2,320 range, strong resistance near previous high of 2,390 - 2,400.
If 2250 is lost, ETH is likely to deepen its correction below 2,200; if bulls can regain above $2,325, a short-term turnaround may be possible.

3. Momentum and Sentiment Indicators
RSI is currently in a neutral zone (around 55-57), not overbought, indicating that bulls and bears are still in a tug-of-war; MACD histogram has returned to zero, suggesting the market is brewing for the next trend, with direction to be confirmed.
Next catalyst: Optimistic expectations for Ethereum's Pectra upgrade, which is expected to go live on the mainnet in April. Once implemented, it will serve as an important technical catalyst.

II. Market Liquidity: ETF Continues to Attract Funds, but Whale Movements Weigh on Confidence
Liquidity shows a complex picture of medium- to long-term institutional optimism, short-term localized capital disturbances, and clear setbacks for bulls.
✅ Positive signal: ETF funds are flowing steadily
Last week (April 20-26), ETF net inflow was $155 million
ETF net inflow for April as a whole is approximately $540 million
Cumulative ETF net inflow has exceeded $12 billion
This indicates that institutional investors are still actively increasing their ETH holdings.
Previously, Ethereum ETFs recorded their strongest weekly performance since 2026.

III. News and Policy: Policy as a Lever, Security and Foundation Operations Short-term Pressure, Macro Policies Slightly Positive
• USA: SEC is evaluating the introduction of tokenized securities trading mechanisms supporting on-chain settlement; CFTC has stated that market regulation authority is exclusively federal, with states having no jurisdiction—this provides a clearer framework for crypto derivatives regulation.
• International: Pakistan’s central bank has lifted the ban on virtual assets, continuing to improve global acceptance. However, the IMF issued a risk warning on the tokenization of RWA in early April, signaling caution.
• Ecosystem and Security: Multiple events have triggered chain reactions affecting sentiment.

Overall Judgment
Short-term (1-3 days): Technically, ETH has lost key moving averages, and on the news side, supply-side pressures from foundation un-staking and whale movements weigh on sentiment, which remains bearish. The 2,250 - 2,263 zone is a critical support line for bulls; once broken, it could accelerate the decline toward 2,200 or even 2,180.

Medium-term (1-4 weeks): Continuous ETF fund inflows and the upcoming Pectra upgrade are important stabilizing forces; however, the large positions held pose the biggest risk of liquidation waves. The market is likely to continue oscillating within the 2,200 - 2,400 range, consolidating and waiting for a clear direction.

Variables: If the Pectra upgrade is officially implemented or the US further clarifies policies on tokenized securities, it could serve as a strong upward driver. Conversely, if more whale addresses plan to transfer assets to exchanges, deeper corrections should still be anticipated.