Market sentiment is shifting from an extreme retracement phase into a "neutral re-pricing zone," but the trend has not been confirmed as reversed.

According to the comprehensive on-chain indicator model, Bitcoin's sentiment score has risen for the first time to the neutral level of 50 after falling from the $126k high. This indicates that the current market has reached a balance between bullish and bearish signals, marking the first time in this cycle that it has entered a "long-short symmetry zone."
However, historical patterns are not optimistic:
In March 2022, the same signal zone appeared, and subsequently, BTC quickly dropped from about $48k to below $20k, indicating that neutrality does not equal safety.
From the derivatives market perspective, the current structure remains defensive:

Volatility remains low, and the market lacks trend pricing

Options skew still favors downside protection

Pricing logic leans more towards "range oscillation" rather than breakout trends

Overall, the market has not entered a trend-selection phase but is in a transitional structure of "emotion recovery + indecisive direction."
The real key is not whether it is neutral, but:
After neutrality, which side will capital focus on?
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