U.S.-Iran Situation: The “20-Year and 5-Year” Deadlock at the Negotiation Table

While shaking hands and making peace, they are sharpening their knives—that is the most authentic portrayal of the current U.S.-Iran situation.

1️⃣ Uranium Enrichment Game: Economic Interests Cannot Buy Nuclear Rights

The U.S.-Iran marathon negotiations in Islamabad once advanced to “80%,” but ultimately collapsed on core issues. The U.S. demanded that Iran suspend uranium enrichment activities for 20 years, while Iran was willing to suspend for up to 5 years. Iran said that “the type and level of uranium enrichment can be negotiated,” but keeping the right to uranium enrichment is a bottom line. Li Shaoxian’s analysis believes that it is unlikely Iran will fully agree to not enrich uranium, but it may accept suspending enrichment for 5 to 10 years on the premise of protecting its face.

Economic interests are indeed a lure: Iran once proposed allowing U.S. companies to invest in its oil and gas industry in exchange for sanctions relief and a resumption of oil exports. But Iran’s top leader’s military adviser Rezaei has made it clear that they will never compromise because of the U.S. maritime blockade. The conclusion is: the probability of conflict escalation is higher than that of compromise—military pressure will only make Tehran less willing to make concessions.

2️⃣ The Market Has Already Thrown a Party in Advance, “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” Has a High Probability of a Pullback

The S&P 500 has rebounded to pre-war levels. Since March 27, it has risen by nearly 10%, and the Nasdaq has recorded 11 straight gains. Market expectations for optimism about the peace talks have essentially been fully priced in.

If the negotiations are ultimately finalized, a “Buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario is likely to unfold—historical experience shows that the geopolitical risk premium often dissipates rapidly after the shoe drops. Moreover, the current ceasefire agreement expires on April 22, and both sides deny that they have reached consensus on extending it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that the fighting “may flare up again.” Once this fragile balance is broken, the market’s optimistic sentiment will face severe tests.

3️⃣ Asset Allocation Recommendations During the Period of Market Volatility

U.S. stocks have already fully priced in the peace dividend, and the risk of chasing gains outweighs the returns. The following strategies are recommended:

· Gold: Spot gold holds the $4,800 level. It is both a safe-haven tool and the first choice for hedging inflation. Maintain a 5%-10% allocation ratio.
· Crude Oil: Brent remains around $100. Volatility is intense in the short term, but fundamentals are supported strongly. You can participate indirectly through oil and gas stocks or ETFs.
· A-shares/Hong Kong stocks: China’s net capital inflows remain strong, and global capital is increasing its allocation to China as it seeks a safe haven.
· U.S. Treasuries: High oil prices will delay Fed rate cuts, and upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields will remain. In the short term, focus mainly on short-duration instruments.
#美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈