Gold: High-level fluctuation with a slight strength, the 4800 level determines the short-term direction

Recent Market Review

This week, international gold prices experienced a significant rebound after a deep correction earlier. As of April 11, spot gold fluctuated around the 4700-4800 USD range, soaring to 4850 USD/ounce on April 8, hitting a three-week high. During the trading day on April 10, gold initially moved within a narrow range around 4700 USD, then in the evening, due to a weakening dollar, it rebounded briefly to test the 4800 USD level, closing with a small positive candle. Gold has been highly volatile this year, approaching a high of nearly 5600 USD in January, then dropping below 4100 USD in March due to the Fed's tightening signals exceeding expectations, with a maximum correction of over 18%.

Fundamental Analysis

Currently, gold pricing revolves around three major variables:

First, ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue to support gold prices. Since the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz transportation has been disrupted, directly boosting safe-haven sentiment. Gold’s safe-haven attribute has regained attention from funds, benefiting the rapid rebound in early April. However, rumors of a possible ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran have emerged. If the situation substantially eases, safe-haven demand will decline sharply, exerting downward pressure on gold prices.

Second, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy expectations are the main suppressors. The March Fed meeting kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. The rate cut expectations for the year have been reduced from 2-3 cuts to only one, with the timing pushed back to after September. Some officials even discussed the possibility of restarting rate hikes. Influenced by soaring oil prices pushing up inflation, the interest rate market has begun to price in rate hikes, which is unfavorable for gold.

Third, continuous gold purchases by global central banks provide medium- to long-term support. As of the end of March, China’s gold reserves reached 74.38 million ounces, an increase of 160k ounces month-on-month, marking the 17th consecutive month of accumulation. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 year-end gold price target to $5,400/ounce, and JPMorgan Chase has set a year-end target of $6,300/ounce, indicating Wall Street’s continued optimism about gold in the medium to long term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold currently faces two key levels: support at the 5-day moving average near $4,720, and the convergence of the 10- and 20-day moving averages around $4,670. A break below these levels would signal a return to a weak downward trend. On the upside, attention is on the $4,800 level; a stable breakthrough could attract more bullish funds, with further resistance at $4,840-$4,850 and $4,900. Additionally, after gold (XAUUSD) resumed trading on April 13, the market expects prices to fluctuate within the range of $4,701.55 to $4,821.84, with the possibility of a two-way movement.

Next Week’s Outlook

Overall, it is expected that gold will likely remain in a high-range consolidation, with a dilemma between upward and downward movements next Monday. Bullish factors include unresolved Middle East geopolitical risks, a weak US dollar index, and market safe-haven demand ahead of April CPI data. Bearish factors include the potential escalation of ceasefire negotiations, the Fed’s tightening expectations suppressing gold valuation, and profit-taking after recent sharp gains. Resistance is expected around $4,800-$4,820, with support at $4,720. A break below could test $4,670. Given the high uncertainty surrounding US-Iran developments, short-term strategies should favor observation until clearer news emerges.

2. Crude Oil: Geopolitical premium oscillates, the battle for the $100 level

Recent Market Review

This week, crude oil experienced intense volatility. Early on, due to Middle East conflicts and disruptions in Hormuz Strait transportation, WTI surged above $117. However, following news of US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, it plummeted over 16% on April 8, briefly dropping to a low of $91, then rebounded to recover. As of April 10 close, WTI’s main contract was at $96.57 per barrel, and Brent crude was around $95.20 per barrel. WTI once approached the $100 mark again, showing a high-level consolidation and recovery trend.

Fundamental Analysis

The core variables in the current oil market are highly concentrated on Middle East tensions:

Bullish factors include the incomplete recovery of Hormuz Strait shipping, with global oil supply disruptions reaching 7.5 million barrels per day in March, expected to peak at 9.1 million barrels per day in April, indicating a short-term supply gap. OPEC+ continues to implement production management, with a slight increase of 206k barrels per day in April, maintaining overall discipline to prevent sharp price declines. Moreover, the EIA short-term energy outlook has raised its Brent crude price forecast for 2026 to $115 per barrel, with a peak in Q2.

Bearish factors involve the progress of US-Iran peace negotiations in Pakistan. If an agreement is reached, Strait transportation is expected to gradually resume, and geopolitical risk premiums could quickly diminish. Meanwhile, US commercial crude inventories continue to grow, increasing by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels in the week ending April 3, nearing a three-year high, indicating short-term demand pressure. In the medium to long term, OPEC+ plans to gradually increase production starting May, coupled with sluggish global economic recovery, leading to stronger expectations of oversupply in the second half.

Technical Analysis

WTI is currently oscillating around $96-$100, with the $100 psychological level being critical. A breakthrough could lead to further testing of resistance at $102-$103; support is around $95, with a potential test of the $91 low if broken. Notably, WTI and Brent are experiencing rare price inversion, reflecting differences in supply-demand expectations for different delivery months, also indicating that the market’s pricing structure remains unstable.

Next Week’s Outlook

It is expected that crude oil will continue to fluctuate within a broad range next week, dominated by news flow. The key variable is the latest progress in US-Iran negotiations: if substantial easing signals are released, oil prices may face downward pressure again, testing $95 or lower; if negotiations stall or conflicts escalate again, risk premiums will re-emerge, pushing prices toward $100-$102. Short-term, prices are likely to oscillate between $95 and $100, so close attention should be paid to the latest developments during the mid-April US-Iran negotiation window, maintaining a light position until clarity is achieved.

Currently, both gold and crude oil are driven by Middle East geopolitical factors, with highly correlated but phase-shifted movements. Gold is supported by safe-haven demand but constrained by Fed tightening expectations, likely oscillating in the $4,700-$4,820 range with a slight strength. Oil fundamentals and geopolitical premiums are in a tug-of-war, with WTI expected to fluctuate broadly between $95 and $102. The common risk is that if US-Iran ceasefire negotiations make substantial progress, safe-haven assets will be pressured simultaneously, potentially causing a resonance-driven correction in both gold and oil. Investors are advised to closely monitor the latest developments in US-Iran talks and key data such as US CPI, maintaining flexible positions amid high uncertainty.