Is it insider trading or just a coincidence?

$950 million in crude oil short positions precisely entered 3 hours before the ceasefire

According to Reuters, just hours before the US and Iran announced a ceasefire, investors bet approximately $950 million on falling oil prices. This was on the eve of a major policy announcement by President Trump and represents the latest large-scale wager on the world's most traded commodity.
Data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) shows that at 19:45 GMT on Tuesday (03:45 AM Beijing time on Wednesday), investors sold a total of 8,600 Brent and US crude oil futures contracts.
Less than three hours later, around 22:30 GMT on Tuesday (06:30 AM Beijing time on Wednesday), Trump dropped his threat to destroy "the entire civilization" and announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran. This move caused crude oil futures to plummet about 15% at the open of trading on Wednesday, breaking below $100 per barrel.

Large positions betting on oil price movements are not uncommon, as traders use these positions to hedge large physical crude oil trades. However, such large-volume trades are rare. Traders typically prefer to use bulk orders across multiple exchanges and have brokers execute orders via algorithmic trading within hours to avoid their bets impacting prices. Large orders are also rarely executed after settlement—settlement occurs from 18:30 GMT (02:30 AM Beijing time) Monday through Friday.

Similar operations had occurred before this bet. On March 23, fifteen minutes before Trump announced a delay in striking Iran’s energy infrastructure, investors sold $500 million worth of crude oil futures. Trump’s statement shocked the market, triggering a 15% crash in oil prices.
According to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg, within two minutes starting at 6:49 AM New York time (6:49 PM Beijing time on March 23), financial contracts related to at least 6 million barrels of Brent and WTI crude oil were sold. During the same period in the previous five trading days, the average volume was about 700k barrels. At around 7:05 AM on that day (7:05 PM Beijing time on March 23), Trump posted a related message on his “Truth Social” platform.
In Tuesday’s trading, at 19:45 GMT (03:45 AM Beijing time on Wednesday), approximately 6,200 Brent crude oil futures contracts were traded, about 1% of the total volume during that session; at the same time, about 2,400 WTI crude oil futures contracts were traded, also roughly 1% of the day’s regular trading volume.