69,600 USD Bitcoin, are you chasing it?

As news of a ceasefire negotiation between the US and Iran broke, BTC violently surged from 67k to over 69k, soaring 3.77% in 24 hours, with short positions liquidating nearly three times the long positions. Whales are aggressively accumulating at high levels, and even Charles Schwab is about to launch Bitcoin trading — but the profit/loss trading ratio has already hit a 12-week high, while market sentiment has fallen to a five-week low. Is this a quick return to a bull market, or the last chance to escape?

First, look at the surface: it’s up, but the rise is making people nervous.

In the past 24 hours, BTC climbed from 67k to over 69k, with market cap back to $1.4 trillion, and trading volume expanding to $37 billion. MACD has turned positive, moving averages are golden cross, and RSI is at 66 without overbought — technical indicators suggest short-term momentum remains. But the US-Iran negotiations could break down at any time, and the Federal Reserve is still holding on to high interest rates — how long can this momentum last?

First thing: institutions are buying, and they’re buying aggressively.

Charles Schwab, managing $7 trillion in assets, announced plans to launch spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum. In March, Bitcoin ETF saw its first $1.3 billion in net inflows.

Second thing: geopolitical risks loom overhead.

What’s driving this rally? Not halving, not ETFs, but the rumors of a US-Iran ceasefire negotiation. Trump’s team and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire framework, oil prices have fallen in response, and risk assets are rebounding across the board. But what if negotiations collapse? Oil prices spike again, risk aversion surges, and BTC will fall just as fast as it rose.

Third thing: on-chain data is warning “Be cautious.”

The profit/loss trading ratio for Bitcoin has risen to a 12-week high. Historical experience shows that when this indicator peaks, it often signals a short-term top. Meanwhile, market sentiment has fallen to a five-week low — prices are rising, but people are panicking, creating a divergence.

On one side: institutional buying, whale accumulation, technical bullish signals.

On the other side: geopolitical risks, high interest rates suppressing the market, and short-term top signals.

The critical level: 70k — the dividing line between bulls and bears.

If you’re a short-term trader: consider entering lightly around 68,200-68,500, targeting 70,000 (must break through), then look for 72,500-73,000. Set strict stop-loss below 67k; if broken, exit.

If you’re a long-term investor: accumulate gradually between 67k-68,000, reduce positions above 70,000 to lock in profits, and hold some reserves for the next wave. The Federal Reserve will eventually cut rates, geopolitical crises will pass, and Bitcoin’s scarcity won’t change.

BTC went from 10k to 60k — every time, someone called the top, and every time, someone missed out. This time is no different — every dollar you earn is a reflection of your understanding, and a reward for your resolve. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战 $BTC