I recently noticed a rather cautionary phenomenon. Although Bitcoin rebounded to around $85,000 in mid-March, well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo issued a very serious warning — this may not be the start of a bull market at all, but rather a dangerous trap.

I find his logic quite convincing. The main force driving this rebound isn't genuine spot buyers, but futures contract traders. This kind of rally supported by derivatives liquidity is often prone to sharp fluctuations and chain reactions of liquidations, making the market structure inherently fragile.

Willy Woo bluntly stated that, based on the liquidity charts he has seen, the bear market might only be one-third over, and the bottom structure has not yet formed. This assessment is indeed somewhat heavy.

However, some micro-level data do show positive signals. The 30-day average trading volume net value on major exchanges has turned positive from negative — indicating buying interest has indeed picked up. But analysts also emphasize that this trend still needs more confirmation, and conclusions shouldn't be drawn too quickly.

What’s more complex is the interference from macro factors. The Federal Reserve is about to hold an FOMC meeting, and the forward guidance from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the future interest rate path will be a key variable. Coupled with geopolitical uncertainties, investors really need to stay highly alert at this moment.

Looking back now, the current BTC price has fallen back to around $67,000, significantly below the $85,000 rebound high. This perhaps confirms concerns about the market’s fragile structure — without a confirmed true bottom, the boundary between a bear market and a bull market remains quite blurry. In the short term, caution is still advised regarding any rebounds, waiting for clearer bottom signals to emerge.