🚨 THE WAR ISN’T GOING AWAY OVERNIGHT

Hormuz is disrupted, not fully shut. After strikes that killed Ali Khamenei, Iran has harassed shipping and raised risk across a route that still carries a massive share of global oil.
Flows haven’t gone to zero, but pricing has changed. Oil is above $100 because risk is being repriced in real time, not because supply has collapsed outright.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas scenario is conditional. A full sustained closure would hit growth hard, but that outcome is extreme and difficult to maintain given global naval presence and economic blowback.
Ukraine remains a grinding stalemate with heavy losses on both sides. No breakthrough, no resolution, just ongoing attrition that keeps pressure on energy and commodities.
Goldman Sachs lifting recession odds to 30 percent reflects risk stacking, not inevitability. Labor markets are still holding up, and inflation spikes from oil can fade if supply stabilizes.
THIS IS THE REALITY
Not collapse. Not normal.
A volatile middle ground where geopolitics adds a persistent risk premium, growth slows but doesn’t break, and markets have to constantly reprice uncertainty instead of pricing in a single outcome.