They waited and waited, but nothing came.


From meeting to meeting, the market waited for Powell to finally give the signal and turn on the printing presses.
But against the backdrop of geopolitics, macro data, and tariff wars, everything has taken a turn for the worse—the market now hardly expects a rate cut in the coming year and is increasingly talking about a possible hike.
In other words, expectations have changed dramatically: just recently they were expecting easing, now they're discussing tightening. In this situation, either the bond market is wrong, or the stock market is wrong—and one of them will have to go lower.
As long as the market thinks so, I'm staying in risk-off mode (zero futures positions for the week).
The situation has worsened over the week, so I'm expecting either a decline in risky assets or clear signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, which could reverse the current hawkish expectations.
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