# Beware of the Risk of a Major BTC Decline

The daily chart closed with a small bearish candle with a long upper wick, failing to successfully hold above 74,500. Instead, it surged and pulled back, which could be viewed as a false breakout bull trap.

On the 4-hour chart, looking at the bullish volume momentum curve: price rebounded from 60,000 to 76,000, with bullish volume showing a gradually declining state. This indicates that bullish momentum is already exhausted and confidence is waning.

Additionally, tomorrow is the 19th, the day of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. The estimated probability of rate cuts over the next three months is 0, due to rising oil prices and increasing inflation.

BTC price has rebounded to 76,000. Combined with the factors listed above, BTC is very likely to see this rebound stall at 76,000, which could potentially become a reversal time node that triggers the start of a medium-term downtrend.