How The TFI International (TSX:TFII) Investment Story Is Shifting With A Mixed Freight Outlook

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 6:12 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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Analysts have adjusted their fair value view on TFI International, with the CA$ estimate moving from CA$153.95 to CA$161.47. That shift sits alongside a generally constructive but mixed research backdrop, where some firms are leaning into a potential freight cycle recovery, while others highlight softer near term trends and seasonality. As you read on, you will see how these differing views are shaping the evolving narrative around TFI International and what it could mean for your watchlist.

Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value TFI International.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Several firms, including CIBC, RBC Capital, TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citi, and BofA, have lifted price targets on TFI International, reflecting generally supportive views on valuation after recent Q4 updates and previews.

CIBC, RBC Capital, TD Cowen, and Goldman Sachs highlight Q4 execution, pointing to a Q4 beat, solid results, and LTL margin strength, even as Q1 guidance is framed as conservative or affected by weather and seasonality.

CIBC, TD Cowen, Citi, and BMO reference tighter trucking capacity and enforcement actions, which they see as supportive for the freight cycle and TFI's positioning, especially in LTL and truckload operations.

BofA points to potential strong cash generation and U.S. LTL operational improvement, and has raised 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates, while keeping a higher price target in place.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Scotiabank and Stifel keep more neutral stances, with Sector Perform and Hold ratings, and Scotiabank trimming its CA$ price target to CA$165 from CA$170 despite prior target increases.

Several firms, including TD Cowen, JPMorgan, and Stephens, flag softer near term conditions, such as weak freight volumes, tough January trends, seasonality headwinds, and industrial demand pressure on LTL volumes, which could limit near term upside.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

TSX:TFII 1-Year Stock Price Chart

We’ve flagged 2 risks for TFI International. See which could impact your investment.

How This Changes the Fair Value For TFI International

Fair value estimate adjusted from CA$153.95 to CA$161.47.

Assumed long term revenue growth rate updated from 3.06% to 2.76%.

Forecast net profit margin revised from 5.74% to 6.05%.

Assumed future P/E multiple moved from 21.21x to 21.69x.

Discount rate assumption changed from 7.74% to 7.80%.

 






Story continues  

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives link a company’s day to day story to a financial forecast and fair value, updating as new data, guidance, and risks come through. They give you a single place to track how the thesis around a business is evolving over time.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on TFI International to stay up to date on:

How rising North American freight activity, reshoring and cross border U.S. Canada trade could feed into volumes and margins across LTL and truckload.

The impact of digital efficiency efforts, AI driven process changes, and regained high margin clients on free cash flow and earnings per share over time.

Key risks such as prolonged weak freight demand, excess capacity in U.S. LTL, pricing pressure, slower M&A activity, and rising industry costs that could weigh on revenue and margin expectations.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include TFII.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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