600,000 Battle: Can Bitcoin's "Life and Death Line" Hold?

Over the past 48 hours, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a brutal “deleveraging” cleanse. Bitcoin repeatedly broke through several key levels, with the lowest approaching $62,700, and over 130,000 investors faced liquidation in a short period. Behind this waterfall decline, the market was not driven by a single negative factor but by a liquidity crisis triggered by a chain of leveraged long positions being wiped out. This article will analyze the causes of this crash and dissect the implications of the $60,000 support level for both bulls and bears.

1. Bloody Weekend: Over $400 Million Vanished

● Although weekends are usually periods of relatively calm volatility in the crypto market, this past weekend became a “hellscape” for leveraged longs.

● Bitcoin attempted to rally toward $68,600 on Saturday, but the rally was short-lived. As selling pressure increased, the price quickly reversed downward, breaking below $64,000 early Monday morning. According to Coinglass data, this sharp decline forced over $467 million in futures contracts to be liquidated across the network, with longs accounting for as much as 93%, approximately $434 million.

● Notably, a single liquidation on the HTX exchange involved $61.5 million worth of BTC-USDT, widely believed to be the liquidation of a whale or a fund’s long position, rather than retail traders. Such a large position being liquidated instantly further intensified the market’s downward spiral.

2. Who’s Selling? Triple Pressure Mounts

Regarding this decline, Presto Research associate researcher Min Jung pointed out that it was not caused by a single deteriorating fundamental but by a resonance of macro risk aversion and internal market fragility.

● First, macro-level “tariff sticks” are once again wielded. Former U.S. President Trump announced a temporary increase in import tariffs to 15%, up from the previous 10%, directly weakening risk appetite. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions escalated, prompting funds to withdraw from risk assets like Bitcoin and flow into traditional safe havens such as gold.

● Second, the phased “absence” of institutional demand. Data shows that the Coinbase premium index, which measures institutional demand in the U.S., has been mostly negative since 2026, indicating that U.S. investors are mainly distributing rather than accumulating.

○ More intuitively, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF funds have outflows of about $2.81 billion over the past two months, with $1.21 billion flowing out just since February. This level of outflow directly drained buying support from the market.

● Lastly, and most critically, the internal deleveraging cycle in the crypto market. Bitrue research director Andri Fauzan Adziima analyzed that the market is experiencing large-scale long liquidations, with funding rates remaining negative and open interest plummeting.

○ Data from Glassnode also confirms this: the seven-day moving average of realized losses for buyers remains near $500 million daily, indicating that short-term holders are still cutting losses after the initial liquidation in early February.

3. $60,000: The Last Bastion for Bulls

As prices retreated, the $60,000 round number became the focus of all traders. Coinbase Institutional’s analysis on social media pointed out that options market data shows the densest support cluster around $60,000, serving as a critical level to prevent further acceleration of the decline.

Analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima further explained the significance of the $60,000–$63,000 zone:

● If it holds (bullish scenario): Staying above $60,000 would be unfavorable for bears due to the persistent negative funding rates. If bears need to close positions to cover losses, it could trigger a short squeeze, creating conditions for a rebound. If macro sentiment improves or ETF inflows resume, a recovery could be possible.

● If it fails (bearish scenario): A decisive break below $60,000 could open the door to further declines. In the worst case, worsening macro conditions could accelerate liquidations, pushing prices toward the mid-$55,000s, and in extreme cases, testing $47,000.

From a technical perspective, some traders note that although prices are testing below $65,000, more buy orders may be waiting around $60,000. If the level is broken convincingly, the next key support could be the 200-week moving average near $58,500.

4. Market Sentiment Plummets

During this crash, market panic was even more striking than the price decline itself.

● The “Crypto Fear & Greed Index” has plunged to 5, entering “extreme fear” territory. This level has only been seen three times since 2018—during the August 2019, June 2022 crashes, and earlier this month.

● Interestingly, sentiment reflexivity is confirmed by Google Trends data. Searches for “Bitcoin is dead” and “Bitcoin will go to zero” hit all-time highs this month, with scores reaching 100. Historical experience suggests that such extreme pessimism often coincides with short-term bottoms, though it does not guarantee a perfect bottom signal. Still, it indicates that weak hands are accelerating their exit.

● Under this extreme sentiment, market participants’ behaviors are diverging. While institutional funds continue to flow out, some contrarians are quietly accumulating. MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy) completed its 100th Bitcoin purchase on February 23, adding 592 BTC at an average price of about $67,286. On-chain HODL signals also show that long-term believers are quietly accumulating during this risk-off phase.

5. Future Outlook: Darkness Before Dawn?

● As of press time, Bitcoin has rebounded slightly, regaining above $65,000. However, there remains significant disagreement among institutions about the future.

● Pessimists like Ned Davis Research strategist warn that if this bear market turns into a full-blown “crypto winter,” Bitcoin could halve to around $31,000. Optimists believe that the extreme fear readings, massive realized losses, and widespread liquidations are often signs that the market is searching for a bottom.

● Regardless of the outlook, one thing is certain: this deleveraging-driven decline has completed an initial “detox.” In the short term, $60,000 is not only a key technical level but also a psychological battleground for bulls and bears. For investors, maintaining calm amid market fear may be more important than blindly buying the dip or cutting losses.