✍️Avoid using prediction markets for sports end-of-market strategies

Lately, I've been pretty bored and playing around in various prediction markets, but overall, my personal operations are no different from "gambling markets." The only difference might be what I’ll mention next.
🌟Don't sweep 90% of the market before the basketball game is almost over
Basically, taking NBA as an example, I’ve played a few times. Leading the opponent by 10-20 points in the third quarter, then being overtaken in the fourth quarter lol.
If basketball isn't leading by ten or twenty points in the last few minutes, and the order book hasn't been fully swept, there's actually no need to participate.
Recently, I saw cases where, in 3 minutes, the total score gained less than 5 points, and in 2 minutes, over ten points.
There was also a case where, in the third quarter, leading by more than 20 points, but in the fourth quarter, trailing by 10 points.
And most importantly, basketball on gambling sites usually doesn’t have a "closing" phase; it’s basically allowing everyone to bet until the end, so it doesn’t feel like a "prediction market."
Overall, it’s still a "gambling" market, and the funniest part is:
Once the odds are set the day before in prediction markets, they don’t change, but in gambling markets, they can change dramatically—for example, "main player injured," "many players resting," which can turn the point spread into the underdog side, and whether the prediction market still "lets" or "gives" remains the same lol.
Anyway, I haven't found much of a prediction market vibe in NBA right now; it’s just pure gambling.
Maybe I should try predicting "champion" or "MVP"?
🌟Football end-of-market is even more exciting
Football’s end-of-market is actually more interesting and a bit different from "gambling markets."
Friends who often bet on football know: in gambling markets, whenever a goal is scored, a red card is given, VAR is used, or any situation occurs, the market will immediately "close."
But in prediction markets: no matter what happens, trading can still be open on the order book. So sometimes you’ll see, even if the score is 2-0, you can still buy over 1.5, and the odds might still be very high.
For example:
A few days ago, in the Premier League match between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, according to traditional gambling markets, the market was closed for the last 90 minutes, especially with ongoing goals and VAR reviews.
But in the "prediction market," trading was still ongoing, so you could see the odds dropping from 12% to 97%, then falling to 17%, then fluctuating around 30%. When a goal was finally scored, the odds were still at 93%, but then someone swept the market clean.
Another example:
After VAR technology was introduced in football, whether a goal is scored can be "predicted correctly or not," which means every time you watch a live broadcast or score update, you can predict "truth or falsehood."
At this point, all the O’s you see can still be bought, but whether VAR will be used or not remains unknown.
🌟Sweeping the end-of-market is essentially a low-water strategy
Basically, unless you have a 99.9% accuracy rate, you need to guard against that 0.1%, and you shouldn’t go all-in. Otherwise, if a low-probability event occurs, it might take 1000 attempts to recover.
Every time I see group members making 1-2% profit and running, they are risking 100%, even though they might run away halfway through 😂.
I treat prediction markets purely as gambling; after all, I don’t have "insider information." The only insider info I know is what "everyone knows."
Football is round, basketball is round, and anything low-probability can happen.
🌟Many people teach how to use sports markets for betting
I see many strategies teaching how to bet using sports markets. Basically, the key is big events with good liquidity.
And for hedging, many teach you to place buy 1 and sell 1 orders, but that actually carries risks—you might not be able to hedge properly.
So it’s still about betting, risking 1% of the margin, or trying to hedge but failing.
So, fundamentally, I don’t quite understand or agree with it.
✍️What exactly do prediction markets predict?
At least I haven’t figured out what they predict yet, so many countries treat prediction markets as "gambling platforms."
I’ve written before about the differences between prediction markets and gambling platforms, but I feel that once I get involved, it ultimately turns into "gambling."
Betting on Iran getting attacked?
Betting on Maduro being arrested?
Betting on interest rate cuts?
Sometimes I can’t even tell myself clearly anymore—predicting whether I’ll eat tomorrow, whether it will rain, or if there will be sunshine.
But one good thing is, losses in prediction markets are much slower than in crypto trading 😂. You can lose in crypto trading in a day, but in prediction markets, it might take a year to lose that much.