Bitcoin Below StrategyB's $76,000 Cost Basis – Long-Term Opportunity or Warning of Risks?

Bitcoin continues to face difficulties maintaining below the $65,000 level due to ongoing selling pressure affecting market sentiment. Price movements have remained quite volatile in recent weeks, with high fluctuations and traders showing a lack of confidence amid tightening liquidity and broader macroeconomic instability. Although there have been intermittent recoveries, they have yet to establish a sustainable upward momentum, leaving Bitcoin trapped in a cautious accumulation phase below a key psychological threshold.

A recent report from CryptoQuant highlighted a notable structural development related to StrategyB, formerly known as MicroStrategy. It has been over six years since the company began its Bitcoin accumulation strategy, targeting around 5% of the total supply of the asset. This initiative, driven by CEO Michael Saylor—one of Bitcoin’s most long-term supporters—reflects the belief that BTC could eventually surpass the $1 million mark over time.

To pursue this goal, StrategyB has executed the largest dollar-cost averaging (DCA) investment program in Bitcoin history, notably without selling any BTC since inception. The annual investment figures illustrate the scale of this effort: $1.1 billion in 2020, $2.57 billion in 2021, $276 million in 2022, $1.9 billion in 2023, $21.9 billion in 2024, $22.4 billion in 2025, and $4.1 billion so far in 2026.

StrategyB’s Strong Bitcoin Accumulation Strategy and Its Market Impact According to the report, 2025 marked a record year for StrategyB in terms of capital invested, with over $22.4 billion allocated to Bitcoin accumulation. Data indicates that 2026 is currently following a similar trajectory. If this pace continues, the company could surpass last year’s record, further solidifying its position as one of the largest institutional holders of BTC.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the estimated cost basis that StrategyB has achieved, at around $76,000. This index reflects the average purchase cost of the company across its entire Bitcoin holdings. The report states that StrategyB holds approximately 717,131 BTC, accounting for about 3.4% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin. This level of concentration demonstrates the significant involvement of large institutions in the market structure.

However, interpreting this data requires caution. Trading below the cost basis of large holders does not automatically mean undervaluation; the cost basis is a metric based on average purchase price, not a valuation model. Market conditions, liquidity flows, and macroeconomic variables remain the primary factors influencing price direction.

Nevertheless, the most notable point is that even large institutional investors often rely on relatively simple accumulation strategies like dollar-cost averaging. Whether this approach is optimal in the current environment depends on individual risk tolerance, investment horizon, and broader market conditions.

Weekly Declines Below Key Moving Averages Signal Structural Weakness Bitcoin’s weekly price structure has deteriorated significantly in recent sessions. After failing to sustain above the $90,000–$100,000 range, the price reversed and is now declining back toward the mid-$60,000s. The most recent weekly close at around $66,000 indicates that BTC is clearly below both the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, both of which are beginning to slope downward.

This shift has important technical implications. During the 2024–2025 bull run, these moving averages serve as dynamic support levels, continuously absorbing corrections and reinforcing the trend’s continuation. Losing these levels now turns them into resistance zones above, limiting upward momentum unless they are reclaimed with strong trading volume.

The 200-week moving average, currently hovering around $50,000, remains the last significant structural support on this timeframe. Historically, closing below the 50-week moving average after a cycle peak often signals longer correction phases rather than shallow accumulation.

Trading volume has increased during the recent decline, indicating distribution rather than merely low liquidity. The sharp sell-off from around $90,000 down below $70,000 reflects strong supply entering the market.

To regain control, BTC needs to break through the $75,000–$80,000 zone and establish higher highs on the weekly chart. Until then, the weekly trend suggests caution, with momentum leaning toward further consolidation or additional downside.