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Preview before the US stock market opens, please enjoy. #Gate广场发帖领五万美金红包
ETH candlestick chart + current news sentiment, I judge that after the US stock market opens (9:30 AM ET), overall risk assets (US stocks + crypto) will mainly fluctuate weakly with increased volatility, short-term downside pressure has not been fully released, but after extreme panic zones and deleveraging, oversold rebounds are also accumulating. There won't be an immediate crash, but a strong reversal is unlikely.
Currently (morning of 2026/2/23), ETH is about $1920-1925, down 2.3%-5% in 24h (consistent with your screenshot), BTC around $65,000-$66,300. Futures markets indicate expectations at open: Dow -0.3% to -0.5%, S&P -0.3% to -0.45%, Nasdaq -0.5%, directly dragging high-beta crypto.
1. Technical analysis of candlestick charts (corresponding directly to your 4 images)
• Daily chart (1D): Super bear market structure. From over 3400 to 1920, price has long been below all MAs (MA7≈1958, MA30≈2221, MA60≈2662), MACD death cross expanding, KDJ at low levels with dulling. Key support at 1740 has been tested once; breaking below could accelerate towards 1550-1600. The current rebound is just a "dead cat bounce" with no volume support.
• 4H: Recent bottoming attempt failed, price again fell below 1920-1950 zone, with 1844 as a short-term low. Decreasing volume + MA death cross indicate bears still in control.
• 1H & 15min: Short-term small rebound (green bars + KD golden cross signs), MACD DIF/DEA showing convergence, oversold rebound in WR. But this is a low-level correction, with insufficient volume (only 10,000-30,000 contracts on 15min), easily pushed back by sell pressure at market open.
Technical conclusion: Higher timeframes are fully bearish, lower timeframes show oversold rebound windows. But as long as it doesn't stabilize above 1950-1980, any rebound is an opportunity for bears to add positions.
2. News-driven influence (tariffs + capital + sentiment triple resonance)
• Trump tariff escalation: Over the weekend, tariffs increased directly from 10% to 15% globally (using other legal means to bypass Supreme Court rulings), market shifted from "optimistic Friday" to "panic Monday." This directly triggers risk aversion: US stock futures turn lower, crypto, as a "high beta liquidity asset," drops even more sharply (BTC once flash crashed to 64k). Selling has already intensified during Asian hours, and US market open will further confirm this sentiment.
• Capital flow: Crypto ETFs/funds have been net outflows for 5 consecutive weeks (over $4 billion total), another $288 million outflow this week. ETH-related products face greater pressure. Stablecoin inflows are nearly stagnant, institutions/whales are still "buying dips and selling."
• Additional catalysts: Vitalik Buterin sold 1869 ETH over the past two days (about $3.6 million), intensifying FUD. Panic and greed index has fallen to 5-12 (extremely low historically, only seen in 2019, 2022, and February 2026), retail longs account for over 73% (a typical contrarian indicator).
• Macro: No major data today (only Fed Waller speech + factory orders), but tariff uncertainty dominates everything. If Nasdaq continues to decline after market open, ETH is likely to test 1880-1840.
3. Market outlook after US market open (most likely 3 scenarios)
1. Baseline scenario (65% probability): US stocks open lower and decline or fluctuate down 0.5%-1%, ETH follows downward to 1880-1850, short-term rebound fails. Reason: Futures are already priced in, Asian markets have already fallen, leverage longs are still on the verge of liquidation.
2. Oversold rebound scenario (25% probability): If no new tariff escalation after open + some short covering, ETH can quickly rebound to 1950-1980 (corresponding to a small Nasdaq rebound). But it’s unlikely to hold, representing a "panic rebound."
3. Accelerated decline scenario (10% probability): If Trump tweets about "more powerful tariffs" or large ETF outflows occur, ETH may flash crash below 1840, heading straight to 1740.
Time window: The first 30-60 minutes after open are most critical (liquidity injection). If ETH holds above 1900 on 15min/1H charts with volume, it can be seen as a short-term sign of stabilization.
4. Current forward-looking indicators to monitor (recommend real-time tracking)
• US stocks: Nasdaq 100 futures, VIX (fear index has slightly risen), pre-market tech stocks (NVDA, AMD, etc., with earnings next Wednesday as a major catalyst).
• On-chain crypto: CryptoQuant whale inflow ratio (still high but declining from peak), stablecoin net inflows (if positive >$1 million/day, a reversal signal).
• News: Trump Truth Social updates, BlackRock and other ETH ETF outflow data today, Vitalik wallet movements.
• Events this week: Tuesday Trump State of the Union, Wednesday Nvidia earnings, Friday PPI inflation data — any positive news could trigger a rebound, but tariffs remain the biggest variable.
• Historical analogy: Similar to 2022 bear market extreme panic + macro shocks, often see "V-shaped" or "W-shaped" bottoms. Current position is close to below the true market mean, risk-reward ratio is improving, but don’t go all-in; wait for confirmation signals (stabilize above 1950 + ETF inflow).
Summary trading advice: After US market open, watch the 30-minute candlestick first. If ETH drops below 1900 with increasing volume, consider staying on the sidelines or lightly shorting rebounds; if it quickly recovers above 1900 and stabilizes, try small long positions with a stop at 1880. Keep position size within 10-20% of total funds, leverage no more than 3-5x. Extreme panic zones are often medium-term entry points, but currently still in the "sell pressure testing" phase. Be patient, wait for macro easing or liquidity turning points. #特朗普宣布新关税政策